Core view
One week market review: this week, the CSI 300 index fell 1.67%, the power and utility index rose 1.96%, and the weekly relative yield was 3.63%. In the Shenwan industry category, the increase of public utilities ranked fifth in 28 industries. By sector, the environmental protection sector fell 1.74%; Among the sub sectors of the power sector, thermal power rose by 1.82%; Hydropower fell by 1.06%, and new energy power generation rose by 5.02%; Water sector fell 3.50%; Gas sector rose 3.87%; Testing services fell 0.50%.
Comments on changes: due to the favorable coal price stabilization policy, thermal power sector Shenyang Jinshan Energy Co.Ltd(600396) (20.62%), China Power (9.23%) and Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) power shares (9.05%) rose; The issuance of benefit policies and project indicators for the new energy power generation sector accelerated, with a large increase of Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) (10.97%), Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy Co.Ltd(000862) (9.39%) and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) (8.83%). The supply and demand of natural gas is tight, and the price increases significantly. The gas sector Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co.Ltd(603393) (17.02%), Zhongxing Tianheng Energy Technology (Beijing)Co.Ltd(600856) (16.03%) and Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co.Ltd(605169) (12.25%) increased significantly.
The national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism. Clarify the reasonable range of medium and long-term transaction price of coal in key areas. The price range set in the notice is lower than that published in December 2021. It is pointed out that the medium and long-term transaction price of Qinhuangdao Port coal (5500kcal) is 570 ~ 770 yuan per ton (including tax) in the near future, and the upper limit price is used as the medium and long-term transaction price of Qinhuangdao Port coal, When the shipping and storage costs of about 70 yuan / ton are added and converted into 7000 kcal of standard coal, the cost price of coal used by coastal power plants is 946 yuan / ton (excluding tax), the fuel cost of power plants is 0.284 yuan / kWh, the profit is significantly increased by 0.027 yuan / kwh, the profit of thermal power is greatly improved, and the inflection point appears.
Investment strategy: Public Utilities: 1. The reform of electricity marketization is promoted, and the electricity price can better reflect the value of supply and demand, cost and environment. The construction cost of new energy continues to decline. New energy operators have “triple” certainty, and the growth rate of “quantity” – scenery installation has high certainty; “Price” – the price of thermal power rises, the green premium is superimposed, and the profit space of green power is opened; It is expected that the “coal price + wind power trading mechanism” will be optimized, and the “coal price + wind power trading mechanism” will be formed next year, so as to ensure the long-term performance of haizhuang coal and Wind Power Association. 2. 3. The construction of new power system with new energy as the main source will deeply benefit new energy power producers and comprehensive electric energy services. Recommend good cash flow, “nuclear power and new energy” two wheel drive China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , recommend actively transforming new energy and abundant cash flow, thermal power leader Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) etc; New energy operation leaders with capital cost and resource advantages China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power and comprehensive electric energy services Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) , and renewable paper companies developing distributed photovoltaic Zhejiang Rongsheng Environmental Protection Paper Joint Stock Co.Ltd(603165) . Environmental protection industry: 1. High performance and low valuation; 2. The business model is improved, and the operation indicators continue to improve: 3. The stable growth operation attribute appears, and the yield and cash flow indicators continue to improve.
Risk warning: the environmental protection policy is not as expected; The growth rate of power consumption decreased; Electricity price reduction; The terminal price of natural gas has been reduced.
