Investment advice
Carbon nanotubes have significant performance advantages and high barriers to catalysts, dispersion systems and equipment
Carbon nanotube (CNT) is a one-dimensional quantum structure surrounded by graphene. It is a significant conductive material. It is mainly used in lithium-ion batteries, and has a good commercial prospect in the field of conductive plastics and carbon based chips. According to the difference of graphene layers, CNT can be divided into single wall and multi wall; The advantages of single wall carbon nanotubes are: 1) more stable chemical properties; 2) Good mechanical properties; 3) Improve the adhesion of the pole piece. CNT technical barriers are mainly reflected as follows: 1) catalyst is the core of the process; 2) The equipment process determines the continuous and macro quantitative preparation level, and the head enterprises mostly develop their own equipment to improve production efficiency. 3) Dispersion system is the core step of slurry preparation, and the dispersion degree directly determines the performance of slurry.
The power battery market has penetrated rapidly, and the 10 billion market has set sail
In the field of lithium-ion batteries, the share of CNT by mass in 2021 is about 21%, and the share of product penetration is about 30-40%. It is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future: 1) CNT can comprehensively improve the battery energy density, cycle life, fast charging performance, high and low temperature characteristics, etc. 2) With the rising price of competitive products (carbon black) and its large-scale cost reduction, the cost performance is improved. 3) Lithium iron phosphate battery is rising rapidly, with poor conductivity and high addition ratio, which effectively drives the demand for carbon nanotubes. 4) The rapid development of high nickel positive electrode and silicon-based negative electrode will drive the rapid application of carbon nanotubes, especially single-walled carbon nanotubes, in silicon doped negative electrode. We predict that the global demand for carbon nanotube slurry will reach 590000 tons in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 47% from 2022 to 2025, and the corresponding market space will reach 22.4 billion yuan.
Industry technology and product iteration is fast, and leading enterprises have significant advantages
Carbon nanotube industry barriers are mainly reflected in: 1) high technical barriers, head enterprises have perfect patent layout, and traditional carbon black is difficult to switch directly due to process differences and technical barriers; 2) High customer barriers: the certification cycle of conductive agent is long, the cost is relatively low, and the customer stickiness is large. Therefore, CNT is a typical technology intensive niche market with high concentration. Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) shipments in the Chinese market have ranked first for many years, with a market share of 32% in 2020, followed by Jiyue nano. In terms of overseas markets, LG Chemical relies on its own advantages for independent research and development, and Cabot cuts into the field of carbon nanotubes through the acquisition of Sanshun nano; Ocsial focuses on single-walled carbon nanotube products and has about 95% of the industry's production capacity.
Investment suggestion: we recommend paying attention to the track leader with leading technical strength and significant customer advantages Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) .
The rapid expansion of production capacity, active development of new customers, and the layout of conductive masterbatch business are expected to become a new growth point. The company insists on self production of powder, strengthens purification and NMP recovery, and thickens profits through integrated layout. In addition, the company also actively iterates products to improve profitability. We continue to be optimistic about the company's technical and customer advantages and raise the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 299 / 596 / 990 million yuan (the original forecast was 292 / 582 / 788 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 179% / 100% / 66%, corresponding to EPS of 1.29/2.57/4.26 yuan respectively. Under the current stock price, the corresponding PE is 107 / 54 / 32 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The permeability of carbon nanotubes is lower than expected; The application of silicon-based negative electrode is less than expected Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) high generation product development has not progressed as expected.
