Events
According to the industry statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 26 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics in February 2022 sold 24483 excavators in total. Among them, China sold 17052 sets and exported 7431 sets.
Key investment points
In February 2022, the sales volume of excavator decreased by 14%; The decline narrowed by nearly 7pct compared with January, and the export increased by 98% year-on-year
In February 2022, the sales volume of excavators was 24483 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 14%, which was nearly 7pct narrower than that in January. Among them, 17052 units were sold in China, a year-on-year decrease of 31%, with a large decrease but narrowed; 7431 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 98%, continuing to grow at a high rate.
From January to February 2022, the sales volume of excavators was 40090 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, of which 25330 units were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 38%; The export sales volume was 14760 units, a year-on-year increase of 101%. It is estimated that the sales volume of excavators will be 309000 units in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. Among them, China sold 206000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, and exported 103000 units, a year-on-year increase of 50%.
In February 2022, the proportion of sales volume of small excavation increased by 8.4pct, the recovery of small excavation was good, followed by large excavation, and the recovery of medium excavation was slow
In February 2022, the sales volume of small excavation in the Chinese market was 11515 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 21%, accounting for 68% and a year-on-year increase of 8.4pct; The sales volume of China mining was 4000 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 46%, accounting for 23%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.8pct; The sales volume of large-scale excavation was 1537 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 41%, accounting for 9% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.6pct. From January to February 2022, China's small excavation market recovered relatively well, and the recovery of medium and large excavation market related to infrastructure, real estate and mining industry was relatively slow. The sales volume of small excavation was 16895 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 29%, accounting for 62%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1pct; The sales volume of China mining was 5879 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 51%, accounting for 27%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.3pct; The sales volume of large-scale excavation was 2560 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 48%, accounting for 11%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.8pct.
The government work report proposed that "infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance", and the expected margin of demand has improved
The 2022 government work report proposed to "moderately advance infrastructure investment". Although the scale of special bonds is the same, they will be "pre issued" this year to help economic growth. With the resumption of work after the Spring Festival and the commencement of major projects, the expected marginal improvement of construction machinery. With the weakening of the base effect, the commencement of major projects will boost procurement confidence, and the decline range of construction machinery represented by excavators will be significantly narrowed in the second quarter.
The export of excavators continued to grow rapidly in February. If the export increased by 50% this year, it can hedge the 25% decline in Chinese sales
From January to February, 14756 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 101%. The export sales volume of excavators has reached 56% CAGR in the past five years. In 2021, the annual export volume reached 68000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 97%, showing an accelerating trend.
If the relatively neutral assumption (- 10%) is adopted for the growth of excavator sales in 2022, if the excavator export can maintain a 50% growth, it can hedge the 25% decline of excavator sales in China.
Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) and other companies are expected to move from China's leader to the global leader by virtue of internationalization, digitization and electrification
Construction machinery is China's current advantageous industry. Chinese companies can rely on economies of scale, industrial chain and operation efficiency to achieve a global leading position Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) and other industry leaders will gain considerable market share by virtue of internationalization, digitization and electrification after completing China's import substitution, and move from China's leader to the global leader.
Investment advice
Construction machinery continues to focus on the leader of strong alpha attribute. Recommend Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.Ltd(603338) , Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) ; Continue to be optimistic about Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) , Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) , Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , China Railway Hi-Tech Industry Corporation Limited(600528) .
Risk tips
Infrastructure and real estate investment are less than expected; The export growth rate of excavator was lower than expected
