Event: the 2022 government work report proposed to continue to do a good job in risk disposal in the economic and financial field in accordance with the basic principles of stabilizing the overall situation, overall coordination, classified policy implementation and accurate bomb removal. We will consolidate local responsibilities, departmental regulatory responsibilities and corporate responsibilities, strengthen risk early warning, prevention and control mechanisms and capacity-building, establish a financial stability guarantee fund, use market-oriented and legalized methods to resolve potential risks, and firmly hold the bottom line of no systemic risks.
Preventing and resolving financial risks "from macro to micro", and the financial stability guarantee fund will be an important force to resist financial risks. Since 2018, the relevant contents of "preventing and resolving major risks" have appeared in the government work reports over the years, but the relevant statements and specific measures are different. In 2018, to "promote significant progress in the prevention and resolution of major risks", in 2019, it was proposed to "strengthen the bottom line thinking in the prevention and resolution of major risks", in 2020, it was "strengthen the prevention and control of major risks in finance and other fields, and resolutely hold the bottom line of no systemic risks", and in 21 years, it was "improve the working mechanism of financial risk disposal and consolidate the responsibilities of all parties", Then to this year's specific proposal to "establish a financial stability guarantee fund". Measures to prevent and resolve financial risks are more specific.
Previously, the central bank proposed to formulate a "financial stability law", which is expected to include relevant regulations to regulate the positioning, responsibility boundary, fund raising and use of the "financial stability guarantee fund". The financial stability guarantee fund will be an important mechanism to maintain the stability of China's financial market, help to effectively reduce systemic financial risks in the current macro environment, and become an effective supplement to the financial macro prudential supervision system.
At present, China has established insurance guarantee fund, securities investor protection fund, trust industry guarantee fund, deposit insurance fund and other systems. The function mechanism of each fund is different. The goal is to prevent, resolve and deal with risks in insurance, securities, trust, bank deposit and other fields, so as to protect the rights and interests of investors. How to locate the financial stability guarantee fund in the future is the focus of attention. We believe that the fund may be presented in two forms: 1 Integrate the guarantee funds of banking, securities, insurance, trust and other financial sub industries and manage them uniformly at the level of the government and the central bank. This form will integrate the current existing guarantee fund system without involving new scale and easier establishment. At present, this form is the most feasible; 2. A certain scale will be added under the current structure of the existence of the separation guarantee fund of various industries, but its positioning and the proportion of capital contribution of each subject will become the core concern. If the institutions need to make capital contribution in a differentiated proportion according to the type and scale, it may have a great impact on the performance of some institutions in a specific year.
To sum up, at present, under the complex situation outside China and the downward pressure of the economy, superimposed on the financial opening-up and system reform, the financial stability fund may become a feasible paradigm to resist the spread of financial risks and thicken the industry safety cushion, but the establishment of the fund may have a certain impact on the performance of relevant industry subjects.
Since the beginning of the year, the economic and financial environment outside China has been complex, but the financial stability fund system in the government work report provides a feasible "risk compensation mechanism" for the financial industry. The "two sessions" may bring more surprises to the capital market, and the annual report season is about to open. At the current time, it is suggested to pay attention to the value targets with high certainty of performance. The core focus of the industry is still on the main line of wealth management, and the marginal improvement of the consignment of financial products will help the valuation repair of leading targets. The investment banking "blowout" driven by the comprehensive registration system is expected to become the most deterministic growth opportunity in the medium and long term of the securities sector. The project supply exceeds the carrying capacity of investment banks to a certain extent, which is expected to promote the pricing ability of securities companies. Therefore, we suggest to continue to pay attention to the "growth" opportunity of the resonance between big wealth management and "Pan investment bank" in the medium and long term.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy risk, market risk and liquidity risk
