Key investment points
Overall overview of the industry: from January to February, the cumulative wholesale was + 14% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 20% again. Passenger Federation caliber: in February, the output of narrow passenger cars reached 1.492 million (year-on-year + 31.4%, month on month – 27.0%), and the wholesale sales volume reached 1.455 million (year-on-year + 26.9%, month on month – 32.6%); Among them, the output of new energy vehicles was 351000 (year-on-year + 208.1%, month on month – 18.7%), and the wholesale sales volume was 317000 (year-on-year + 189.1%, month on month – 24.1%). The export of passenger vehicles (including complete vehicles and CKD) was 133000, with a year-on-year increase of + 69.0% and a month on month increase of + 21.0%, including 45000 new energy vehicles, with a month on month increase of – 13.0%. From January to February, the passenger car industry has wholesale 3.612 million vehicles, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 13.6%, and 734000 new energy passenger vehicles, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 161.9%. In the first two months of 2022, the penetration rate of wholesale caliber new energy vehicles was 20.32%, continuously exceeding 20%. In terms of production, the overall chain decline of independent brands is large. Luxury brand production increased by 15% year-on-year and decreased by 27% month on month; The production of joint venture brands increased by 31% year-on-year and decreased by 22% month on month; The production of independent brands increased by 38% year-on-year and decreased by 31% month on month. Looking forward to March 2022: we expect that the overall output and wholesale of the passenger union industry will be + 34.1% / + 37.5% month on month, and the corresponding year-on-year will be + 9.8% / + 8.8% respectively; The overall export volume is expected to be 170000; It is estimated that 450000 ~ 400000 new energy vehicles will be wholesale.
In February, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 21.79%, with a month on month ratio of + 2.82pct. The downward trend of permeability fluctuation in January is mainly due to the peak season of traditional car exchange before the lunar new year, and it returned to the upward state in February. In terms of breakdown, the wholesale sales volume of BEV pure electric vehicles in February was 245000, with a month on month ratio of + 161.7% / – 27.6% respectively, and a total of 583000 vehicles from January to February, with a year-on-year increase of + 144.9%; The wholesale sales volume of PHEV models was 72000, with a month on month ratio of + 350.9% / – 9.1% respectively. From January to February, it accumulated 150000, with a year-on-year increase of + 258.4%. The export market increased by + 69% year-on-year, with continuous high growth. In February, the passenger car industry exported 133000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 69% and a month on month increase of – 21%, of which the export of new energy vehicles accounted for 34%, with a month on month increase of + 4pct and an absolute value of 45000 vehicles, with a month on month increase of – 13%. In February, the export of independent brands reached 87000, with a year-on-year increase of 44%, and the growth rate slowed down; The joint venture and luxury brand exported 46000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 153%. The year-on-year high growth was mainly due to the large increment contributed by Tesla. 33300 vehicles were exported in February.
At the level of automobile enterprises: from the year-on-year point of view in February, the wholesale sales volume of most automobile enterprises was positive year-on-year Byd Company Limited(002594) / Tesla / ideal / Xiaopeng / ai’an / SAIC autonomy performed better, with an increase of more than 100%; Great Wall / Chang’an performed poorly, with a negative year-on-year performance, mainly due to the high base in the same period in 2021 and the continuous impact of chip shortage this month. On a month on month basis in February, except for FAW Toyota, other auto companies fell month on month, mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) / Xiaopeng automobile / GAC Toyota fell the most, respectively – 60.46% / – 51.83% / – 49.85%, and Byd Company Limited(002594) / SAIC autonomous / Tesla fell the least, respectively – 4.55% / – 4.67% / – 5.56%. From January to February, the new energy market performed well, the new power auto enterprises were significantly positive year-on-year, and the independent brand Byd Company Limited(002594) / gac-e’an performed well. In terms of cumulative wholesale from January to February, Tesla / ideal / Xiaopeng / Byd Company Limited(002594) / ai’an performed best, with + 244% / + 169% / + 132% / + 194% / + 132% respectively; Under the influence of chip shortage, the cumulative wholesale of independent brands Great Wall / Geely / Chang’an was negative year-on-year, with – 19.95% / – 3.72% / – 16.12% respectively; The cumulative wholesale trend of most joint venture brands is differentiated. Changan Ford / SAIC GM / FAW Toyota / FAW Volkswagen / Beijing Benz are slightly negative year-on-year, with – 12.56% / – 10.01% / – 4.09% / – 7.14% / – 11.86% respectively.
Investment suggestion: the correction of the automobile sector has been sufficient, and we are firmly optimistic about the automobile investment opportunities in 2022. It is recommended to over match! 1) Chip Q2 is expected to continue to alleviate + policy underpinning economy + release of rigid demand. China’s passenger vehicle traffic compulsory insurance data is expected to continue to be positive in Q2 year-on-year, and the positive range of Q3 continues to increase. 2) The demand brought about by the price increase of new energy vehicles has been fully responded by the market, and Q2 is expected to resume orders and delivery. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. Recommend [ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ], pay attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) ]. For the recommendation of the sector of parts and components for the sector recommendation [ Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) 01689\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tip: the recovery of downstream demand is lower than expected, and the epidemic control is lower than expected.
