In February, the sales of leisure snacks on Alibaba platform fell sharply. In February, the sales of leisure snacks on Alibaba platform reached 2.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 40.6% and a month on month increase of – 68.4%. We judged that Kwai Chung, tiktok and many other new channels of the rise of the central business, represented by Ali, continued to cause traffic diversion, resulting in a continuous decline in the sales of leisure food Ali platform. We believe that leisure food companies that realize multi-channel layout and build multi-dimensional and three-dimensional sales channels have more competitive advantages.
After the festival, the popularity of nuts / pastries decreased. In February, the sales of pastries / dim sum, beef jerky / preserved pork / marinated snacks and biscuits / puffed food took the lead, reaching 570 million yuan, 430 million yuan and 420 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of – 21.0%, – 32.4% and – 33.0% respectively, accounting for 22%, 17% and 16% respectively. The sales of Pecan / nuts / fried goods fell from the top position in January to the fourth place, and the proportion of sales decreased by 19 PCT month on month and 13 PCT year-on-year. We judge that the move before the Spring Festival has a great impact on the sales of nut fried goods with the attributes of gift and home consumption. In addition, the leading companies mainly selling nut fried goods have also been affected by decentralization. The proportion of pastry / dim sum sales increased by 8 PCT month on month and 6 PCT year on year, while the absolute value of chocolate sales increased positively year on year. These two categories performed better.
By brand, the sales of Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , Baicao and Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) continued to lead, and CR3 declined significantly. (1) In February, Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , baicaowei and Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) achieved sales of 150 million yuan, 130 million yuan and 120 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 65.7%, – 64.4% and – 32.7% respectively. The sales of the three companies accounted for 5.7%, 4.8% and 4.4% respectively, accounting for – 4.5pct, – 3.8pct and – 2.9pct respectively year-on-year. In terms of other brands, bibizan’s sales increased by 56% year-on-year, continuing the momentum of rapid growth. (2) In February, the CR3 of leisure snacks on Alibaba platform was 15.0%, with a year-on-year increase of -6.9pct and a month on month increase of -11.2pct. We judge that there are three reasons for the decline of Cr3. First, the three companies all take nut fried goods as their main sales products. After the Spring Festival, the sales of nut fried goods are cold, which affects the sales of the three companies; Second, the head brand will benefit from the increase of active search traffic at important sales nodes such as the new year goods Festival and the double 11, while the active search traffic will decrease after the new year goods Festival; Third, the trend of online traffic decentralization continues, and the head brand continues to be affected.
Latest industry view: it is expected that the actual dynamic sales of leisure food during the Spring Festival is generally stable, and the move forward of the spring festival may affect the performance of the statements in the first quarter. Focus on companies with clear adjustment ideas and initial results in the short term, and recommend companies with competitive advantages and clear growth logic in the long term. (1) We judge that there is little difference between the epidemic factors and the overall consumption environment of this year’s Spring Festival and last year, and the actual dynamic sales of leisure food during the Spring Festival is stable. (2) The Spring Festival moves forward in 2022, and the delivery and revenue recognition of some annual goods festivals are reflected in 4q21. The base number of superimposed 1q21 is relatively high. We judge that it is difficult for 1q22 snack food to achieve significant growth in revenue and profit. (3) Looking forward to the whole year, we believe that the influencing factors such as channel reform and raw material price fluctuation are still in place. 2022 will be a year to test the adjustment and improvement results of leisure food companies. The industry is expected to be divided, and the adjustment effect is expected to affect the competition pattern of the industry. (4) Focus on companies with clear adjustment ideas and initial results in the short term, and recommend companies with competitive advantages and clear growth logic in the long term. To sum up, we recommend Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , pay attention to Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) .
Risk tips: the promotion of new products is less than expected, the expansion of channels is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is more than expected, the price fluctuation of raw materials and food safety problems.
