According to the production and sales data of the Federation of passenger cars in February, the output of narrow passenger cars (cars / SUVs / MPVS) in China in February was + 31.4% / 27.0% month on month to 1.492 million (the cumulative output from January to February was + 17.8% year on year to 3.535 million), and the wholesale sales were + 26.9% / 32.6% month on month to 1.455 million (the cumulative wholesale sales from January to February was + 13.6% year on year to 3.612 million), Retail sales volume rose from - 1.24 million to - 2.2% year-on-year. According to our judgment, 1) at present, China's passenger car market is still affected by the tight supply chain and the repeated epidemic in some regions; 2) From January to February, the growth rate of cumulative wholesale sales was stable, and the inventory improvement trend of output wholesale sales retail sales appeared in February.
The wholesale / retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in February was about 21.8%, exceeding expectations: the output of new energy passenger vehicles in February was + 208.1% / month on month - 18.7% to 351000, and the wholesale sales volume was + 189.1% / month on month - 24.1% to 317000 (the wholesale penetration rate was + 12.2pcts / month on month + 2.8pcts to 21.8%, and the cumulative wholesale penetration rate from January to February was + 11.5pcts to 20.3% year on year), Retail sales volume increased by 180.5% year on year / from - 22.6% month on month to 272000 vehicles (retail penetration rate increased by 13.0 PCTs year on year / from + 5.2 PCTs month on month to 21.8%, and cumulative retail penetration rate from January to February increased by 11.5 PCTs year on year to 18.8%). According to our judgment, the wholesale / retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in February exceeded expectations, mainly due to 1) the independent wholesale / retail penetration rate increased from + 6.0pcts / + 10.5pcts to 38.0% / 41.9% month on month (among which, the wholesale sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy passenger vehicles in February accounted for + 5pcts to 27% month on month); 2) Tesla retail sales accounted for + 20% month on month, and Tesla retail sales accounted for + 3pcts to 8.5% month on month in February.
Optimistic about the sales prospects of high-end pure electric and plug-in hybrid market segments: from the perspective of the split of wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in February, 1) the penetration rate of independent brands is about 38.0% (vs. luxury brands / mainstream joint venture brands are about 29.4% / 3.3% respectively). 2) Pure electric vehicles accounted for - 4pcts to 77% month on month, reaching 245000 vehicles (year-on-year + 161.7% / month on month - 26.4%); Among them, A00 and class B pure electric account for about 28% / 35% respectively (vs. class a pure electric accounts for about 23%). 3) The proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles increased from + 4pcts to 23% month on month, reaching 72000 vehicles (year-on-year + 350.9% / month on month - 9%); Among them, there were about 44000 Byd Company Limited(002594) plug-in hybrid vehicles in February (plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for nearly 61%).
Investment suggestions: we judge that 1) the recent sector fluctuations are mainly based on market expectations such as the rise in the price of upstream raw materials / the reduction in the production schedule of core spare parts. 2) The 2022 government work report clearly strengthens the supply guarantee of raw materials and key parts, which is conducive to the stable and healthy development of the industrial chain and is expected to further stabilize market expectations. 3) Optimistic about the prospect of continuous release of electric vehicle 2C demand, it is expected that car enterprises are still expected to hedge policy fluctuations and rising cost pressure by retaining orders, time limit price protection, and comprehensive adjustment of price and equity, so as to drive the steady release of new orders; Among them, high-end pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid may be market segments with strong certainty of sales growth. We expect the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars to be 5-5.5 million in 2022e; In the passenger car sector, traditional car companies recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, suggest paying attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , new forces recommend Tesla, and suggest paying attention to the ideal for a long time.
Risk analysis: the reduction of chip shortage is less than expected; Replenishment is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The launch and climbing of new models are less than expected; The cost control is less than expected, the profit drops, the epidemic situation repeats, and the market risk.
