Core view
The government work report made it clear to expand credit, stabilize growth and strengthen the bank with “volume and price” β。 The government work report in 2022 specifies that the annual economic growth target is 5.5%, which exceeds the compound GDP growth rate (5.1%) from 2020 to 2021; At the same time, it was announced that the target of local government special bonds in 2022 was 3.65 trillion yuan, which was the same as that of last year. From the perspective of local bond issuance from January to February this year, it was significantly higher than that of the same period last year, showing the characteristics of financial front; The statement of “expanding the scale of new loans” is added in the government work report. Therefore, it is expected that the higher growth rate of 5.5% will rely more on credit in the follow-up, and the credit volume can be expected to build a strong bank β Properties. “Price” also shows marginal benefits. For example, this government work report does not mention “financial profit transfer”, which brings dawn to the stability of net interest margin of banks; The growth target of inclusive small and micro enterprises of large state-owned banks has also been weakened. Previously, in order to complete the assessment of inclusive small and micro enterprises and disrupt the market, some banks gradually withdrew their policies, which can make room for benign competition in the market, especially in terms of small and micro enterprises’ pricing, which is good for high-quality joint-stock banks and urban and rural commercial banks.
Real estate risk mitigation tools have increased, and residents’ housing needs to continue to be protected. In line with the premise of “no speculation in housing and housing”, both development loans and residential housing loans show loose policy signals. In terms of development loans, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on excluding the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing from the concentration management of real estate loans on February 9, which made it clear that the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing projects are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans; Since February, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and others have successively launched real estate M & A financing plans, and the tools to mitigate real estate risks are gradually increasing. The clearing of real estate risks is expected to accelerate, and the industry will enter a virtuous circle of healthy development. In terms of residential housing loans, affordable rental housing has been written into policy documents for many times. The government work report released on March 5 mentioned that we should continue to ensure the housing needs of the people, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, and “stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations”. It is expected that personal housing loans (mortgages and consumer loans) will directly benefit from the development of the rental market and bring increment to bank credit.
From March to April, the bank’s performance was intensively released, supported by excellent fundamentals, and the valuation reversal is expected. From the performance express of 2021, the excellent fundamentals of the banking industry have been determined. The roe of 14 banks has improved compared with the whole year of 2020, and the outstanding performance provides support for bank valuation. From March to April, bank performance meetings were held one after another, and information on asset quality and bank transformation progress focused by the market was released one after another, which is expected to bring marginal improvement in investment. As of March 4, Pb in the banking sector reached 0.57, at a historically low level, and the phased reversal of valuation is worth looking forward to; Under the fermentation of the overall pessimism of the market, the role of banks as a weight sector will gradually highlight.
The credit demand in key regions is strong, and the banking sector can be preferred α Attribute stocks. Bank region and α With strong correlation, banks located in economically developed areas can grow together with the regional economy for a long time and enjoy the huge increment brought by population agglomeration and industrial investment, especially under the guidance of “steady growth”. For example, economically developed provinces and cities in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the Pearl River Delta and Chengdu Chongqing ranked among the top 10 in the country in terms of loan increment in the fourth quarter of 2021, with strong demand for deposits and loans, opening up room for growth of net interest income of banks; Economically developed regions are also the gathering place of China’s wealth groups, opening up space for emerging tracks such as bank wealth management. The common feature of the head joint stock bank and the city commercial bank is that they are located in high-quality areas, such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) and so on. They not only show the ability to cross the cycle in 2020, but also achieve brilliant performance in 2021 under a high base, α The attribute is very strong. Therefore, the region is a major consideration to grasp the structural opportunities of the banking sector.
Investment advice
The government work report firmly established the goal of economic growth, and the financial profit transfer and the assessment of “two increases” of large banks were weakened and strengthened β Bring optimization at the same time α Opportunities. The government work report brings policy spring breeze to the bank’s large-scale volume and “stable price”, and the annual net interest margin is expected to remain stable. In the field of inclusive small and micro enterprises, the policy assessment of large banks is weakened, and the growth space of small and medium-sized high-quality banks is further opened; Many banks have entered the real estate M & a business, and the real estate risk has been cleared quickly; In terms of rental housing, the policy warm wind is blowing frequently, and personal credit will benefit directly; Banks in developed regions have the ability to cross the cycle and extend upward for a long time, which is the best choice for the banking sector α Strong logic. Under the overall wait-and-see situation of a shares, bank stocks, as a weight sector, are expected to gradually highlight the protection effect. It is suggested to pay attention to the bank sector α First, state-owned banks and high-quality urban commercial banks with significant advantages in Inclusive Finance, such as Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , etc; Second, wealth management and integrated management are the leading stock companies in the industry, such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , etc.
Risk tips
The multi-point outbreak of the epidemic has dragged down investment and consumption; The deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine accelerates inflation and does not rule out the possibility of the United States raising interest rates in advance; The implementation of infrastructure and other projects is less than expected, affecting the bank’s credit volume; The Spring Festival effect in February lowered the growth rate of social finance in the first quarter.
