Core view
Photovoltaic: in the first quarter, the global photovoltaic market is expected to be good, and the demand is highly prosperous for a long time. As the government’s demand for energy security is increasing in the first quarter of 2022, bnef has raised its subsequent PV installation expectations. According to the prediction of Bloomberg new energy finance, in 2022, the global newly added photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 33% year-on-year to 245gw (DC side); The price of polysilicon will be in the range of US $25-35 per kilogram, and the supply will increase by 40% year-on-year. The new supply of silicon material is expected to enter the market at the end of the year; By the end of 2022, the price of photovoltaic modules is expected to be 24-25 cents per watt; In order to achieve net zero emissions in 2050, it is estimated that 5.3tw of photovoltaic installed capacity will be required in 2030. According to the judgment of Bloomberg new energy finance, the price of photovoltaic industry chain will maintain high toughness during inflation.
Wind power: Notice of Shandong Energy Bureau on printing and distributing the guiding opinions on energy work of the whole province in 2022. It refers to the 35gw planning of offshore wind power base and the 42GW energy structure planning of offshore photovoltaic base. Notice of the Energy Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on printing and distributing the renewable energy development plan of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region during the 14th Five Year Plan period. During the “14th five year plan” period, the newly installed capacity of renewable energy was more than 80 million kilowatts, accounting for more than 60% of the total newly installed capacity, becoming the main force of new installed capacity. Publicity of the bid winning results of wind turbine centralized procurement (including tower) of mengneng 510mw project. Vision energy is the first candidate for winning the bid, with a quotation of 1.079 billion yuan, equivalent to a unit price of 2115 yuan / kW. According to the calculation of wind power finance, the cost of pure wind turbine generator with tower removed is about 1650 yuan / kW Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) is the second candidate for winning the bid. The bid price is 1.179 billion yuan, equivalent to 2313 yuan / kW. China Ocean decoration is the third candidate for winning the bid, with a bid price of 1.092 billion yuan, equivalent to a unit price of 2140 yuan / kW. Bid winning publicity for procurement of 100MW offshore wind turbine in Pingtan, Three Gorges. The bid price of offshore wind farm (202 × 104) is publicized by the bid winner, and the bid price of offshore wind farm (0021 × 104) is RMB million, and the bid price of offshore wind farm (0021 × 104) . The candidates for the second and third bid winning of this bid section are Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co.Ltd(688660) . Bid section (package) [002] the first bid winner of wind turbine equipment procurement (60MW) of Pingtan offshore wind farm project is Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) . The bid price is 274.8 million yuan, equivalent to 4580 yuan / kW. The candidates for the second and third bid winning of this bid section are Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co.Ltd(688660) . Huaneng Fuyuan north and other 20 wind power projects, with a total of 3.11gw wind turbine procurement bid opening. The project is divided into six bid sections. The lowest price of bid section I is Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , which is equivalent to the unit price of 1970 yuan / kW; The lowest price of bid section II is Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , equivalent to unit price of 2064 yuan / kW; The lowest price of bid section III is Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , equivalent to 1825 yuan / kW; The lowest price of bid section IV is Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , equivalent to 2378 yuan / kW; The lowest price of bid section V is Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , equivalent to 1825 yuan / kW; The lowest price of bid section VI is Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , equivalent to 1992 yuan / kW.
Industrial control: the production PMI has dropped, but it is still expanding, and the demand has obviously warmed up. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China’s manufacturing PMI in February 2022 was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points month on month; PMI production index was 50.4%, down 0.5 percentage points month on month; PMI new order index was 50.7%, up 1.4 percentage points month on month; PMI new export order index was 49%, up 0.6 percentage points month on month. The market scale of China’s CNC metal cutting machine tool reached a new high in 21 years and is expected to continue to break through in 22 years. According to Mir data, the market scale of CNC metal cutting machine tools in China reached 67.9 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 29%. Mir predicts that the market scale of China’s CNC metal cutting machine tools will further expand in 22 years, with a year-on-year increase of 7%. Meanwhile, Mir predicts that the demand for this round of machine tools will continue to 2023; In 2021, the main downstream industries of CNC metal cutting machine tools in China showed an increasing trend. According to Mir data, among the downstream industries of CNC metal cutting machine tools in China in the past 21 years, the automobile industry increased by 31%, 3C electronics industry increased by 35%, and medical devices increased by 34%.
Investment proposal and investment object
The photovoltaic sector recommends Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ( Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , buy), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , buy), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ( Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , buy), Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ( Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , buy), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) ( Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , buy). It is recommended to pay attention to Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ( Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , not rated); The wind power sector recommends Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) ( Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , overweight), and it is recommended to pay attention to Tianshun wind energy ( Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , not rated), Daikin heavy industry ( Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , not rated), Hengrun shares ( Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , not rated), Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) ( Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , not rated).
Risk tips
The growth of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; The growth of wind power industry is less than expected; Industrial control industry grew less than expected
