Key points:
Traditional Chinese Medicine II fell 0.33% last week, and the sub sectors of medicine were mixed
Last week, pharmaceutical biology closed at 100626 points, up 0.18%; Traditional Chinese Medicine II closed at 753864 points, down 0.33%; Chemical pharmaceutical closed at 1134875 points, up 2.62%; Biological products closed at 1069815 points, down 0.65%; Pharmaceutical business closed at 612203 points, up 5.39%; Medical devices closed at 888263 points, down 1.03%; Medical services closed at 981161 points, down 1.83%. The sub sectors of medicine rose and fell with each other, the pharmaceutical business and chemical pharmacy rose on a weekly basis, and the traditional Chinese medicine sector fell the least. In terms of the company’s performance, the top companies are: Dali Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603963) , Gansu Longshenrongfa Pharmaceutical Industry Co.Ltd(300534) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) ; 35.
Traditional Chinese medicine PE (TTM) decreased by 0.18 times and Pb (LF) decreased by 0.01 times
Last week, the PE of traditional Chinese medicine was 34.05 times, the maximum value of PE in recent year was 38.81 and the minimum value was 28.78; The current Pb is 3.05 times, the maximum value of Pb in recent year is 3.56, and the minimum value is 2.57. PE in traditional Chinese medicine decreased by 0.18 times and Pb decreased by 0.01 times. The valuation center of the pharmaceutical industry continues to decline slightly. At present, the valuation of the traditional Chinese medicine sector is slightly higher than the median level in recent one year. The valuation premium rate of traditional Chinese medicine sector relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 161.05%.
The price index of traditional Chinese medicine continued to rise, and the performance of epidemic related varieties was strong
Last week, the total price index of traditional Chinese medicine was 213.3 points, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous week. The market price continued to rise, and the market of epidemic related varieties was strong. Twelve categories of traditional Chinese medicine showed seven rises and five falls, and the price index of mineral medicine ranked first. Recently, the Chinese herbal medicine market has been hot and strong. New varieties produced in spring will be on the market, with high sales enthusiasm. In addition, affected by the epidemic, the import and export trade has decreased, and the prices of some varieties may increase. It is expected that the price index is expected to continue to rise slightly in the later period.
The government work report proposes to support the development of traditional Chinese medicine and pay attention to the hot spots related to the two sessions and the target of high performance growth. The 2022 government work report points out that “support the revitalization and development of traditional Chinese medicine and promote the comprehensive reform of traditional Chinese medicine”. With the support of policies in recent years, the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine has significantly accelerated in 2021. With the reform of registration and classification of traditional Chinese medicine and the promotion of “Three Combinations” of clinical evidence and other policies, the number of approval of innovative traditional Chinese medicine has reached a new high, and the approval process has also been accelerated. Traditional Chinese medicine has played an important role in major health events such as SARS and covid-19 epidemic, and its strategic position has been continuously improved. In the future, policies focusing on traditional Chinese medicine are expected to continue to be introduced and implemented.
From the demand side of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, the rigid demand characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry and the upgrading of pharmaceutical consumption jointly support the steady growth of the demand of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. From the perspective of policy, a series of favorable policies have been formed to promote the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, the development of formula particles, the support of medical insurance and payment policies, and the continuous addition of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces can not exceed 25%, bringing policy dividends and new demand to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. The unique advantage of “preventing disease” brings development opportunities to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. From the perspective of performance, the traditional Chinese medicine industry has walked out of the low point and showed a marginal improvement trend. From the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry still has relatively obvious valuation advantages. “Policy + pharmaceutical consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantage” jointly build investment opportunities for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. Cost promotion constitutes a short-term driving factor. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven.
(1) pay attention to the innovation of modern traditional Chinese medicine, and pay attention to the innovation targets of modern traditional Chinese medicine with strong R & D strength and layout of large categories (large market: cardio cerebrovascular + fast growth: pediatric medicine);
(2) pay attention to the advantages of brand traditional Chinese medicine, formula and raw materials, and jointly build a moat of brand traditional Chinese medicine;
(3) benefit from consumption upgrading, and pay attention to the subject matter of industrial chain extension and strong brand advantage. At present, it is in the performance disclosure season. It is suggested to pay attention to the pre disclosure of the performance of listed companies and the subject matter with excellent performance in the annual report.
Risk tips
(1) stricter industrial policies;
(2) industry and listed company performance fluctuation risk.
