Key investment points:
Steel:
The procurement volume of thread screw was + 55.99% month on month; The output of the five major steels increased by + 3.36% month on month; Steel price was + 2.59% month on month. The supply of steel mills to resume production has rebounded, and there is still room in the peak season; The demand side recovered rapidly, but follow-up data should be paid attention to to to verify the economic stability effect. The raw material side supported the steel price affected by the oil price, the supply disturbed by the situation in Russia and Ukraine indirectly affected the steel price, and the profitability of the steel plant improved. At present, affected by the situation of stabilizing the economy + Russia and Ukraine, the short-term steel price may fluctuate upward. We need to continue to pay attention to the promotion of stabilizing the economy and the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. In the long run, we need to pay attention to the field of growth special steel.
Industrial metals:
LME copper current price / Changjiang nonferrous copper current price + 5.50% / + 2.54% month on month; LME aluminum current price / Changjiang nonferrous aluminum current price month on month + 14.77% / + 2.76%. Aluminum: the situation in Russia and Ukraine disturbs the supply, the high energy cost increases the production reduction expectation of European aluminum plant, China stabilizes the economic bottom demand and the supply gradually recovers. In the short term, the aluminum price may run at a high level.
New energy metals:
In terms of lithium, the price of lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide was + 7.41% / + 8.07% month on month. China’s lithium supply and demand is tight and the inventory is low. The Ministry of industry and information technology pays attention to the lithium price, but it may be difficult to decline under the support of fundamentals. In the short term, talison has a large volume in March and sqm in June. It is expected that the lithium supply will ease after March, but it is still tight. The increase of lithium price will narrow but remain high after March.
Rare earth:
The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide was + 0.91% / – 0.48% / – 0.33% month on month. The stricter environmental protection, the epidemic in Inner Mongolia and the obstruction of Myanmar mines restrict the supply, the buyer’s inquiry on the demand side is weak, and there is a game between the quotations of the two sides. With the support of fundamentals, the impact of the interview of the Ministry of industry and information technology on the price may be limited, and the price may fluctuate at a high level in the short term.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ( Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ) and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ) for industrial metals. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ( China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ) and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ( China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ).
Risk tips
The risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk that downstream demand is lower than expected, and the risk that covid-19 epidemic spread is higher than expected.
