Volume and price of commercial housing: from January to February, the transaction area of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities decreased by 28.75% year-on-year, and the transaction volume is still significantly lower than that in the same period of previous years. The average price of newly-built houses in Baicheng increased by 0.03% month on month, from decline to rise.
Real estate loans: in February, the average interest rate of the first set of housing loans and the second set of housing loans in 103 monitored cities was 5.47% and 5.75%, both of which decreased by 9 BP compared with the previous month. The average lending cycle of housing loans was 38 days, 12 days shorter than that of the previous month.
Policy: the people’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that the loans related to affordable rental housing were not included in the concentration management of real estate loans, and the national opinions on the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing were issued; Many places across the country have introduced real estate market promotion policies such as reducing the proportion of down payment and providing house purchase subsidies, and the construction of local affordable rental housing has been accelerated.
Key real estate enterprises: in February, the sales trading amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 47.2% year-on-year Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) issue 1.5 billion yuan of corporate bonds with an interest rate of 8%; A number of real estate enterprises provide guarantees for new projects, and the guarantee balance accounts for a high proportion of net assets.
Bond issuance and maturity: in February, the real estate industry issued 33.197 billion yuan of bonds, and the net financing through the bond market was – 13.341 billion yuan. From September 2020 to February 2022, the bond stock scale of China’s real estate industry decreased by about 314.51 billion yuan.
Credit events and spreads: in February, seven bonds triggered cross default and one bond was extended. The credit ratings of 4 entities and 30 bonds were downgraded. The credit spread (median) of bonds of industrial real estate industry decreased by 5.38bp month on month, and the credit spread of AA + and AA grade was close to AAA grade.
Summary and Prospect: the recent decrease in commercial housing sales has affected the payment collection progress of real estate enterprises, and some real estate enterprise capital chains have been under great pressure. Although the real estate policy has been relaxed recently, the current rise in house prices has stagnated, the market expectation of future house prices has been reversed, buyers have wait-and-see mood, and the effect of relevant policies may be limited. Therefore, for some real estate enterprises with backlog of stock projects and high liabilities, the future sales collection may still face the pressure on the demand side. In particular, some real estate projects with poor geographical distribution are more difficult to de commercialize, and even face losses. When the cash flow support of sales collection is limited, if the real estate enterprises face the centralized maturity of debt, the capital chain may still be broken.
