\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Core view
Guangben’s sales volume increased rapidly year-on-year. Guangben sold 57100 vehicles in February, a year-on-year increase of 39.1%; From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 135600, with a year-on-year increase of 14.2%; According to the preliminary statistics of the passenger Federation, in February, the wholesale sales of narrow passenger vehicles increased by 31% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of guangben’s wholesale sales outperformed the industry average. In February, Yage sold 16600 vehicles, Binzhi sold 10200 vehicles and haoying sold 11700 vehicles. In terms of new cars, Honda’s new intelligent pure electric brand e: n’s first model e: NP1 is expected to be officially launched in the first half of the year, and new models such as lattice hatchback will be launched in 2022. The new car is expected to become a new incremental source of guangben’s sales. It is expected that chip supply will improve month by month in 2022, and guangben’s sales volume is expected to maintain a high year-on-year growth rate.
Guangfeng’s sales volume recovered steadily year-on-year. Guangfeng sold 50100 vehicles in February, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%; From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 150000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. The year-on-year growth rate of wholesale sales of Guangfeng in February was lower than the industry average. In February, Camry sold 13700 vehicles and leiling sold 10300 vehicles. In March, Guangfeng’s new pure electric compact model ia5 was launched, with a new 580km long endurance model and dual 12.3-inch central control + LCD display to realize the additional allocation and upgrading of the whole series. Later, it will be listed as the first model of Toyota BZ pure electric series bz4x within the year. Guangfeng’s influence in the pure electric market is expected to continue to improve.
The year-on-year growth rate of GAC’s independent sales is good, and the year-on-year growth rate of ai’an’s sales remains high. GAC sold 23800 vehicles independently in February, a year-on-year increase of 73.5%; From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 60400 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 25.5%. GAC’s independent wholesale sales in February significantly outperformed the industry average. In February, GAC motor GS4 series sold 10200 vehicles, and the new ga6 was officially launched in February. The new car is equipped with 12.3-inch dual screen, blind area monitoring, lane offset warning, lane keeping assistance, automatic parking and other intelligent driving assistance functions, and the intelligent configuration is fully upgraded. GAC ea’an sold 8500 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of 163.2%. From January to February, it sold 24600 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 131.8%. In January, aion s plus, aion LX plus and other upgraded models were launched, and the sales volume is expected to be released later, driving the continuous growth of the sales volume of ai’an. According to the official account of the general public, the two phase of the plant expansion was completed in February 14th, and its capacity increased to 200 thousand vehicles / year. The expansion of production capacity helped the company to meet the demand for orders that continued to grow, helping the company maintain its own new energy vehicle sales upwards.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.67, 1.00 and 1.14 yuan respectively. Based on the 22-year PE valuation and referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the company will be given 17 times PE in 2022 and the target price will be 17 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The sales volume of GAC passenger cars, Guangfeng, guangben and guangfeike is lower than the expected risk, and the demand of the passenger car industry is lower than the expected risk
