\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 472 Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) )
Event: the company released the forecast for the first quarter of 2022 and predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter would reach 105125 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 98.19% – 135.94%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 95 million-115 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 117.43% – 163.2%.
The performance of new energy gear business continues to improve. The company has entered the performance inflection point period since the second half of 2020, and has achieved high-speed growth year-on-year and month on month in each quarter of 2021. Among them, the gears of new energy vehicles have become the main driving force. We believe that the core reason is that the gear production pattern has shifted greatly in the process of automobile transition from fuel vehicles to new energy – automobile enterprises are no longer inclined to produce gears by themselves, In vitro suppliers will be selected. In the process of changes in production rights, the company laid out advanced production capacity in advance, combined with excellent design, processing, quality assurance and other comprehensive capabilities, took the lead in the industry, seized the first opportunity and obtained a great market share. With the rapid start-up, the scale advantage appears and the cost continues to be optimized, so that it has a significant cost advantage at the beginning of the industry reform, which will further consolidate the leading position of the industry and form a virtuous circle.
RV Reducer may become a bright spot in the future. In addition to benefiting from the new energy reform, the company’s own RV Reducer has also broken through the monopoly of Japan and Europe, and has basically realized the full coverage and localization replacement of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) rv reducer products. At the same time, it has entered the domestic Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) mainstream manufacturers. With the continuous improvement of technology and recognition, it may become another bright spot after the new energy gear, driving the company’s secondary growth.
Investment suggestion: benefiting from the changing trend of the guild, the company continues to increase. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 520 / 700 million in 22-23 years. Corresponding to about 27 times of PE in 22 years, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of passenger car industry is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials rises sharply.
