\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Events
According to the announcement released by the company, during the Spring Festival in 2022, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) products have a good sales momentum, showing a strong market trend, and successfully achieved a “good start”. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year.
Key investment points
The performance is in line with expectations, and we are optimistic that Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) subsequent accelerated development and reform exceed expectations. Performance level: We previously predicted that Q1 profit growth rate was 19-20% (market expectation was 15%), which verified our previous view. Recently, the adjustment was mainly due to market risk aversion and northward capital outflow, and the announcement is expected to boost confidence. At the policy level: (1) ding Xiongjun previously said that he should not “take small steps” and “take big steps”. (2) the State Council issued a document in January to support Guizhou’s development and give play to the superiority of Maotai Baijiu liquor in Chishui River Basin. (3) in February, Guizhou Province proposed that in 2022, the Guizhou Baijiu liquor brand fleet, which was led by Moutai, will be built, and the policy support to ensure that the added value of the Baijiu industry increased by more than 20% will also set the tone for the accelerated development of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . We continue to be optimistic about Maotai’s accelerated development and reform.
From January to February, the operating data increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of non-standard and direct channels, which contributed to profits.
1. Improvement of Maotai’s product structure: the price increase / structure improvement of non-standard & series liquor products significantly contributed to the performance. The price increase superposition structure improvement of non-standard products: the price increase of high-quality products in January and 15 years in the year. At the same time, some distribution quotas of non-standard products were transferred to direct stores to further realize the price increase, so as to realize the thickening of profits. Price increase of series wine: in January 2022, the company raised the price of six single products such as golden prince, Maotai classic and Han sauce by 10-15%, and the main products were comprehensively increased to more than 200 yuan. New product launch / Chinese Zodiac wine launch in advance. The company released 1935 new products (the shipment volume from January to February may be Tian Jin Bohai Chemical Co.Ltd(600800) t, which is estimated to contribute more than 1 billion revenue, and the annual volume may increase to 25 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) tons); Release new products and treasures; Chinese Zodiac wine was released earlier than last year; Dealers can implement unplanned quotas for non-standard products.
2. The proportion of direct channels has increased significantly. In February 1935, the second batch of products have been put into series liquor dealers and self operated stores, and the proportion of direct sales channels is expected to exceed 17.5% in the same period last year. Overall: from January to February, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) still showed a tight balance between supply and demand, and the wholesale prices of Sanmao and Xiangmao were stable at about 27502900 yuan / 31003300 yuan respectively; The 1935 price of new products has gradually dropped from 1800 yuan just listed to about 1600 yuan. The market feedback is positive. It is expected that the subsequent volume will lay the foundation for the steady growth of annual performance.
In the short term: Maotai liquor series is driven by two wheels, and a series of measures taken by new leaders will be implemented. 22q1 performance: considering that 22q1 company launched new non-standard products + raised prices in year 15 + low base, the profit side is expected to increase by 20%; Performance in 22 years: 1) from the perspective of volume, considering that the amount of Maotai liquor put in this year is only about 36000 tons, which is expected to be 50000 tons at the end of the 14th five year plan, the four years back in 2022 are the big year of Maotai base liquor production, and the volume of Maotai liquor is expected to increase or exceed the expectation in 2022; 2) From the perspective of price, the further increase of the proportion of non scalar price double rise superimposed direct sales channels will be the main direction (in line with the strategy of strengthening price control). After the new leader takes office, it is expected to launch more marketing reform measures, which may also be conducive to thickening performance.
In the medium and long term: entering the 14th five year plan, take the road of Maotai and the “five line” development road. Considering the strong demand side performance, the company continues to strengthen supervision and steadily increase the output (the production capacity target of Maotai base liquor is 55300 tons in 2021 and the production target of series liquor is 29000 tons; during the 14th Five Year Plan period, Maotai series liquor is planned to achieve double production capacity of 56000 tons) The technological transformation project has been steadily promoted (the Maotai liquor technological transformation and expansion project in the 13th five year plan of Maotai was fully completed in September 2020, the new design capacity of 4032 tons of Maotai base liquor was released in 2021, while the technological transformation project of 30000 tons of Maotai flavor series liquor has been steadily promoted), and the channel reform has been accelerated. It is expected that the volume and price of Maotai liquor in 2022 may exceed the expectation, which will accelerate the acceleration of the report end and enter the 14th five year plan, The company will take the road of Maotai, the “five line” development path, adhere to the “double building” and “double consolidation”, focus on the main business, adjust the structure, strengthen supporting facilities, construct the ecology, and have strong certainty of future performance.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 11.2%, 18.7% and 13.6% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.3%, 20.1% and 15.0% respectively; EPS is 41.4 yuan / share, 49.7 yuan / share and 57.1 yuan / share respectively; The corresponding PE is 42, 35 and 31 times respectively. Considering the strong growth and performance certainty of the company, the buy rating is given.
Risk tips: 1. Macroeconomic downturn; 2. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
