\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 899 Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) )
Both revenue and profit slightly exceeded our expectations. We are optimistic about the long-term steady development of the company and maintain the "buy" rating
The company issued a performance express. In 2021, it is expected to achieve a revenue of 17.607 billion yuan (+ 34.02%), a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.518 billion yuan (+ 20.91%), and a net interest rate attributable to the parent of 8.62% (a year-on-year decrease of 0.93 PCT). In 2021q4 alone, it is expected to achieve a revenue of 5.455 billion yuan (+ 18.59%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 401 million yuan (+ 17.25%), both on the revenue side and profit side slightly exceeding our expectations. Looking forward to 2022, in the traditional core business, with the gradual improvement of the negative impact of double reduction, the optimization of product structure and the improvement of channel efficiency, the revenue is expected to maintain a growth rate of 10% - 15%; In terms of new business, it is expected that the revenue scale of klip will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2022, and the enhancement of scale effect is expected to improve its profitability; It is expected that with the simultaneous increase of the number of stores and the income of the same store, the positive trend will continue in the future. Optimistic about the long-term steady development of the company and fine tune the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1518 / 1764 / 2108 million (originally RMB 1463 / 1729 / 2066 million), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 1.64/1.90/2.27, and the current share price will be 29.9/25.8/21.6 times that of PE. The leading position is stable and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
Looking forward to the traditional core business: product structure optimization + channel efficiency improvement to boost steady growth
The negative impact of the double reduction policy has gradually improved. The traditional core business is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of 10% - 15% in 2022. The driving forces are: optimize the product structure: the company adheres to the "reduction and quality improvement" strategy, continuously improves the proportion of high-quality cultural and creative products with high unit price and high gross profit, enhances the sales contribution of single products, and arranges the quality education categories such as Er Mei in advance, Further optimize the product structure. Improve channel efficiency: the company will gradually change from a product wholesaler to a brand retail service provider in the future. While promoting the image upgrading of terminal stores, the company will continue to promote Chenguang alliance app and data enabled distribution system, guide terminal stores to distribute goods according to market demand, and bring about the growth of single store revenue.
Looking forward to new business: klip and Jiumu sundry agency are developing rapidly, and their profitability is expected to be improved
Kelipu: the company continues to deepen cooperation with the government, central enterprises, Fortune 500 and other old customers, while developing new financial customers to increase revenue. The revenue is expected to exceed 10 billion in 2022. The scale effect enhances the bargaining power of the company on the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, superimposes the subsequent optimization of customer structure and the enhancement of fee control ability, and the net interest rate is expected to rise. Jiumu sundries agency: Jiumu grew rapidly in 2021 and has entered a healthy track. It is expected that the number of new stores will reach 100 in 2022. Under the continuous optimization of commodity portfolio and standardized operation, the floor efficiency and profitability are expected to improve.
Risk tip: the policy affects the industry demand, the epidemic situation in some areas is repeated, and the expansion of new business is lower than expected.
