\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event overview
The company released the production and sales express in February 2022: the wholesale sales volume in February was 71000, with a year-on-year increase of – 20.5% and a month on month increase of – 36.7%. The output of 71000 vehicles in February was – 16.9% year-on-year and – 36.6% month on month.
By brand, in February, the wholesale sales volume of Haval brand was 42000, with a year-on-year increase of – 31.2% and a month on month increase of – 40.2%; The wholesale sales volume of wey brand was 4000, with a year-on-year increase of + 103.1% and a month on month increase of – 13.1%; The wholesale sales volume of pickup trucks was 12000, with a year-on-year increase of – 23.1% and a month on month increase of – 9.5%; The wholesale sales volume of Euler brand was 6000, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.1% and a month on month increase of – 52.7%; The wholesale sales volume of tank brand was 6000, with a year-on-year increase of + 96.0% and a month on month increase of – 37.6%.
Analysis and judgment:
Spring Festival and lack of core restrict short-term production and marketing pressure
In February, due to the short-term impact of Bosch ESP chip supply, the company’s production and sales were under pressure. As Bosch is the exclusive supplier of ESP for the company’s main models, Bosch’s limited production capacity has a great impact on the company’s production capacity. At the company level, the company also actively promoted the formulation of output improvement plan with Bosch. It is expected that the chip production capacity is expected to increase rapidly in March, helping the company further increase production and sales.
Intensive iteration of vehicle models, with slight pressure on terminal demand. The company is in the window period of upgrading and accelerating the launch of new products. The reduction of the popularity of old models and the climbing of new products lead to the increase of wait-and-see demand for terminals. From January to February this year, the company sold 183000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of – 19.9%. We expect that with the gradual verification of the product strength of new models, the annual sales volume of the company is expected to increase gradually. Specifically:
Haval brand: the mainstream SUV has a stable position and is accelerating towards intelligence. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 112000, with a year-on-year increase of – 27.9%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of Haval H6 was 55000, with a year-on-year increase of – 29.3%. The cumulative sales volume of Haval beast (flagship SUV of new technology) has exceeded 21000 in the three months since its listing, with a brilliant sales performance.
Wey brand: PHEV version is accelerated. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 10000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 16.5%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of star model latte DHT was 3953, with a month on month sales volume of + 52.4% in February. After listing, it climbed rapidly. On March 1 this year, mocha dht-phev was officially launched, with a total price of 295000315000 yuan. It is equipped with a full stack of self-developed Noh high-level intelligent driving. Many models of Wei brand will be equipped with PHEV version as standard this year. We believe that the demand for high-end electric intelligence is growing rapidly, and independent brands are expected to take the lead in seizing the market. At the same time, the breakthrough of hybrid technology supports PHEV to quickly replace fuel vehicles in low-energy cities, and the demand is expected to continue to increase.
Euler brand: ASP is expected to accelerate the upward trend. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 19000, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.5%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of good cats was 13000, a year-on-year increase of + 262.0%. This year, ballet cat, punk cat, lightning cat and other new members of the cat family are expected to be listed, the product matrix is expected to move towards high-end, and ASP is expected to accelerate the upward trend.
Tank brand: Tank 500 will be on the market soon. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 17000, with a year-on-year increase of + 80.6%. The cumulative number of users of tank 300 has exceeded 100000, and tank 500 will be officially launched on March 18, driving the volume and price of tank series to increase.
Great Wall pickup: fashion, business and leisure. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 24000, with a year-on-year increase of – 34.5%. Among them, 19000 Great Wall guns have been sold in total, and the “fashion commercial pickup” Diamond gun has also been fully opened for pre-sale on March 2. This year, the Great Wall gun will fully focus on the two categories of fashion commercial and passenger leisure, and continue to cultivate the Chinese and overseas markets.
High end intelligence leads hard core technology to accelerate output
From January to February this year, lemon, tank and coffee intelligent platform accounted for 75.1%. Relying on three core technology platforms, the company has achieved breakthroughs in power performance and full speed efficiency. At the same time, the coffee intelligent platform is fully enabled in intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit, accelerating the vehicle to intelligent electrification.
The output of hard core technology is accelerated, and the intelligent penetration rate is continuously improved. From January to February this year, the proportion of intelligent models of the company increased to 88.1%, driving the sales of models with more than 150000 yuan to 15.5%. With the modular R & D and production of the three platforms, the development cycle of new models will be greatly shortened, driving the output of core technologies and accelerating the improvement of intelligent penetration.
Investment advice
The promotion of the company’s new products outside China is progressing smoothly, a new cycle of intelligent electrification has been opened, the proportion of new energy intelligent models has increased rapidly, the leading position of luxury has become clearer, and the non vehicle business income is expected to accelerate the release. We are optimistic that the volume and price of the company will increase this year. Due to the impact of core shortage, the performance expectation of the company from 2022 to 2023 will be revised accordingly. From 2022 to 2023, the operating revenue of the company was adjusted from 206.20/270.25 billion yuan to 1920.5/256.74 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company was adjusted from 123.7/15.86 billion yuan to 113.0/15.76 billion yuan, the EPS was adjusted from 1.34/1.72 yuan to 1.22/1.71 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 30.39 yuan / share on March 8, 2022, and the PE was 25 / 18 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The impact of lack of core is higher than expected; Downside risk of auto market; The market competition of wey, salon, haver and other brands intensifies, and the sales volume is lower than expected; The progress of going to sea was less than expected.
