\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 642 Shenergy Company Limited(600642) )
Key investment points:
The company has low debt ratio and stable cash flow, which is conducive to the expansion of new energy. The asset liability ratio of the company is maintained at about 50%. Although it has increased year by year, it is still at a low level in the same industry. The low debt ratio gives the company more room for development in expanding new energy. The net operating cash flow of the company in recent two years has been maintained at about 5 billion. The construction in progress projects such as Pingshan phase II and Rudong 350000 kW Haifeng have been basically put into operation. The capital expenditure of the remaining construction in progress is relatively small, and most of the stable and abundant cash flow can be used to support the development of new energy.
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we will spare no effort in new energy, and the installed capacity of new energy will account for nearly half in 2025. By the end of 2021, the company's holding installed capacity was 139244 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 10.27%. Among them, the installed capacity of coal power and gas power remained unchanged, and Fengguang new energy increased by 1296400 kW, with a cumulative installed capacity of 3448800 kW, accounting for 24.76%. The company plans to hold an installed capacity of 22-26 million KW by the end of the 14th five year plan, of which the installed capacity of non-aqueous renewable energy will increase by 8-10 million KW. We expect that by 2025, the company's installed capacity of new energy will reach about 11gw, accounting for more than 47% of the company's total installed capacity.
Coal power, gas power and oil and gas pipeline transmission businesses have their own advantages, and the operation is stable and risk-free. The company's coal power business has the advantage of low coal consumption. The average coal consumption for power supply in 2020 is 280.9g/kwh, significantly lower than the national average of 304.9g/kwh; The design coal consumption of Pingshan phase II newly put into operation is 250G / kWh, which will further strengthen the company's advantage of low coal consumption. The gas and electricity business benefits from the capacity electricity price and stable gas source and gas price, and its Lingang gas turbine has maintained a net interest rate of about 11% for many years. The oil and gas pipeline transportation business is changed from gas purchase and sales business to pipeline transportation business, and the gas pipeline transportation fee is charged at a fixed price of 0.18 yuan / cubic meter. In 2020, the pipe network company will achieve a revenue of 1.624 billion yuan, a net profit of 310 million yuan and a net interest rate of 19%; The gross profit margin of pipeline transportation business has increased significantly from 3.18% in 2019 to 30.11% in 2020. In addition, 50% of the company's electricity has been locked through the long-term cooperation, with a premium of 20%. The change of electricity price of Pingshan phase I and the commissioning of Pingshan phase II will also contribute to the company's performance.
Profit forecast. It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 22.2/25.3/27.7 billion yuan in 2021 / 2022 / 2023, a net profit attributable to the parent of 2.214/32.52/3.583 billion yuan, an EPS of 0.451/0.662/0.729 yuan, and a corresponding PE of 15.4/10.48/9.52 times. Considering that the company's traditional business has its own advantages and stable operation; The cash flow is enough to support the company's new energy development plan in the 14th five year plan, giving the company 13-15 times PE in 2022, with a reasonable price range of 8.6-9.9 yuan, maintaining the company's "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: coal price rise risk, market-oriented transaction risk, and Fengguang's installed capacity is less than expected.
