\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 899 Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) )
Traditional business: steady cash under the high base of 21q4 and excellent performance of new products of 22q1
The company’s traditional business of 21q4 has been realized steadily, and it is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase of 15% +; In the recent flood season, the goods of primary schools are stable and the performance of new products is strong. Looking forward to the future: (1) at the product level, the company focuses on the flow categories with high potential and low market share, focusing on the improvement of market share of products such as this volume in 22 years; (2) At the channel level, the company empowers retail terminals offline, reduces the threshold of store upgrading (increases the proportion of benchmark stores), enhances the operation efficiency of single stores through alliance app, pays attention to the construction of boutique stores and improves the proportion of core business districts; Optimize the direct sales structure and dealer distribution online, and focus on the share improvement of key categories. With the omni channel layout and continuous high-end products, we firmly look at the growth and Realization under the strong operation strength.
New business: klippe has a beautiful performance and Jiumu’s business quality is up
(1) klip: during the period, the company actively explored high-quality customers, including central enterprise customers, such as Sinopec, China aviation industry, China tobacco, etc; Government customers, such as Shenzhen municipal government, Wuhan municipal government, etc. In addition, at the beginning of the 21st century, the first phase of East China intelligent new warehouse was launched and the intelligent storage was upgraded; With the improvement and upgrading of the supply chain, the bargaining power of upstream and downstream is expected to be strengthened, and the profit margin is expected to rise under the improvement of scale effect. Looking forward to the next 22 years, with the improvement of benefits and the expansion of new and old customers & MRO category, it is expected to continue the high growth of 30-40%. (2) Large retail stores: opened in 21 years & the same store is improving, the operation quality continues to improve, and Q3 has turned losses into profits; As of 21q3, there have been 436 Jiumu and 60 living halls. At present, the floor efficiency has reached 20000 +. It is expected to maintain the average annual opening speed of 100 stores in the future. It is optimistic about the large-scale performance after the model runs through.
Change is imminent: five years of new journey and revaluation of value system
In 2021, Chenguang will launch a new five-year strategy, which conforms to the population trend and consumption upgrading trend of the new era. Through strategic measures such as high-end and online promotion, and strategic support such as digitization, MBS and merger and acquisition, Chenguang will realize the mission of “making learning and work happier and more efficient” and the vision of becoming a “world-class Chenguang”. The core of the new five-year plan lies in the construction of the whole scene. High-end, online improvement, traffic control and global layout are the key points of reform. At present, it has entered the acceleration period of reform, and is firmly optimistic about the reform effectiveness and performance realization under the strong operation strength.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company has ushered in an accelerated period of change and continues to be optimistic about the performance under super strong operation strength. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 17.607/21.512/26.409 billion yuan respectively in the year of 21 / 22 / 23, an increase of 34.02% / 22.18% / 22.76% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.518/18.13/2.155 billion, an increase of 20.91% / 19.46% / 18.82% at the same time, and the corresponding PE was 29.94x/25.07x/21.09x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The epidemic repeatedly affected demand, the price of raw materials fluctuated sharply, and the change was less than expected
