\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 556 Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) )
Event: the company recently signed a 222 million yuan photovoltaic cutting equipment contract with Qujing Jingao Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd.
The company has signed 396 million yuan of cutting equipment orders with Jingao Qujing, and is expected to take the share of Jingao Qujing slicer. According to Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) announcement, in August 2021 Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) signed an investment framework agreement with Qujing Municipal People’s government and Qujing Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee, and planned to build 20GW single crystal pull rod and slice project in Qujing Economic and Technological Development Zone. The project was officially put into operation in December 2021. Since July 2021, Gaoce and its holding subsidiary have signed a total cutting equipment order of RMB 396 million with Qujing Jingao. According to the investment amount of 15 million / GW slicer and superimposing some grinding machines and other machining equipment, we expect the company to basically win all slicer equipment orders and some machining equipment orders in Qujing Jingao, and the market share of the company in silicon wafer cutting equipment will be further improved.
Equipment in hand, full orders, diamond line shipments are expected to increase. In terms of equipment, the company’s 21-year interim report disclosed that the orders on hand are about 757 million yuan. Considering that the entry time of cutting equipment is later than that of crystal drawing equipment such as single crystal furnace, the new pull rod production capacity in 2021 will be equipped with cutting equipment, which is expected to drive the continuous improvement of the orders on hand of the company’s cutting equipment. In terms of Vajra line, benefiting from the technical transformation of “single machine 12 lines”, the company’s Vajra line production capacity has increased significantly. It is estimated that the company’s Vajra line shipment will be close to 10 million kilometers in 2021, and it is expected to more than double in 2022. Equipment + consumables dual drive, and the basic disk of the main industry is expected to maintain high growth.
Optimistic about the profit release of subsequent cutting OEM + the progress of hjt sheet cutting process. In 2021, the company laid out the cutting OEM business and announced 35gw production capacity (Leshan 5GW demonstration base, Leshan 20GW large silicon wafer and supporting project, Jianhu 10GW large silicon wafer project). Among them, 5GW demonstration base has achieved full production, Leshan 20GW phase I 6Gw is expected to be put into operation in the first half of the year, Jianhu 10GW is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter, and the company is expected to achieve more than 20GW cutting OEM capacity by the end of 22, And the current end customers are mainly downstream battery enterprises. Considering the ramp up of production capacity, the company’s annual cutting OEM shipment is expected to exceed 10GW. With strong cutting technology, the company can achieve high cutting residual dividend and win-win with customers. The company’s hjt half bar and sheet technology is leading. In October of 21, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Aikang. The two sides will gradually implement the cost reduction path of heterojunction n-type large-size silicon wafer thickness from 150 microns to 120 microns and 90 microns through in-depth cooperation in the field of n-type silicon wafer slicing, including the construction of n-type silicon wafer laboratory. With the continuous progress of hjt sheet cutting technology, the enterprises that currently layout hjt production capacity are expected to continue to cooperate with hjt to promote the continuous improvement of the company’s cutting equipment and OEM service orders.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: considering that the company’s equipment is full and OEM releases subsequent profits, the company’s profit forecast is raised. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 170, 410 and 660 million yuan, corresponding to pe72, 30 and 19 times, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tip: the expansion of silicon wafer production is less than expected, the profit fluctuation risk of the company’s OEM business, and the market competition intensifies.
