\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Short term weakness of production and marketing caused by supply chain shortage
In February, the wholesale sales volume of the company was 70800, with a year-on-year increase of – 19.6% and a month on month increase of – 36.7%; The cumulative sales volume in the first two months was 182600, with a year-on-year increase of – 19.9%. Affected by the shortage of Bosch ESP parts (Bosch is the exclusive supplier of the company’s main model ESP configuration), the company’s production capacity is limited and the sales trend is weaker than that of the industry (according to the data of the passenger Federation, the sales volume of narrow passenger cars in China in February was 1.455 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.9% and a month on month increase of – 32.6%). The company is actively promoting Bosch group headquarters and chip suppliers to jointly formulate output improvement plans, and strive to quickly solve the supply problem. Haval and tank brands were greatly affected by the shortage of supply chain, with a month on month decline of 40% and 38% respectively in February. Haval brand sold 42000 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of – 31.2% and a month on month increase of – 40.2%; The cumulative sales volume of 112200 vehicles in the first two months was – 27.9% year-on-year. The sales volume of tank brand was 6500, with a year-on-year increase of + 96.0% and a month on month increase of – 37.8%. The cumulative sales volume of 16800 vehicles in the first two months was + 80.6% year-on-year.
Euler brand sold 6300 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.1% and a month on month increase of – 52.6%; The cumulative sales volume of 19500 vehicles in the first two months was + 10.5% year-on-year. Because black and white cats stopped receiving orders, sales fell in the short term. The sales volume of wey brand in February was 4300, with a year-on-year increase of + 103.1% and a month on month increase of – 13.1%; The cumulative sales volume in the first two months was 9500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 16.5%. Coffee series new cars were launched, the transition between new and old products was completed, and the sales volume increased year-on-year. The Great Wall pickup truck sold 11600 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of – 23.1% and a month on month increase of – 9.5%; The cumulative sales volume of 24500 vehicles in the first two months was – 34.5% year-on-year. The month on month decline of pickup truck in February was lower than that of other brands of the company.
The product structure is optimized, and a number of new cars are about to be launched, which helps the average price of products continue to rise
Huff H6 sold 19600 vehicles (year-on-year + 38.1%, month on month – 44.8%), and huff big dog sold 7423 vehicles (basically the same month on month). The sales volume of Haval beast is 5009, and the cumulative sales volume has exceeded 20000 in the three months after listing. Euler good cat sold 4066 vehicles (year-on-year + 165.1%, month on month – 54.9%). Since March 1, the new model of Euler good cat will be ordered in 2022. Since then, Euler ballet cat, Euler punk cat, Euler lightning cat and other products will be listed one after another, boosting the continuous breakthrough of sales volume of Euler brand. The star model latte DHT of wey brand sold 2387 vehicles (mom + 52.4%). In March, the model of mocha dht-phev was launched and entered the high-end new energy vehicle market at a price of about 300000 yuan. 6468 tanks have been sold in 300, and the cumulative number of users has exceeded 100000. On March 18, the medium and large business luxury SUV tank 500 will be officially launched. The sales volume of Great Wall pickup guns was 8512 (year-on-year + 4.9%, month on month – 15.4%). On March 2, the Great Wall pickup truck diamond gun was opened for pre-sale, and a variety of power and container forms met the diversified vehicle needs of users. From January to February, the sales volume of the company’s models above 150000 yuan increased to 15.5%, the proportion of intelligent models increased to 88.1%, and the proportion of models of lemon, tank and coffee intelligent technology brands has reached 75.1%, continuing to move towards high value and intelligence.
Strengthen the strategic layout of the ASEAN market and boost the development of globalization with its technological strength
In February, the company released the GWM brand ASEAN Regional super symbol. Based on the four markets of Thailand, Brunei, Laos and Myanmar, the company led the normal operation of the markets of Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Singapore, forming a “4 + 4” ASEAN market strategic layout. In 2022, the company will rely on the research, production and marketing system to shape the overseas brand power with science and technology and promote the overseas layout of new energy vehicles. In addition to the existing new energy models listed overseas, more new models equipped with core technologies such as lemon hybrid DHT will be introduced into the overseas market to help the global layout.
Investment suggestion: the short-term supply chain shortage disturbs the sales volume, but the market demand is strong, the orders are full, and the product structure continues to be optimized to high value. Mocha dht-phev, tank 500, King Kong gun, ballet cat, lightning cat, punk cat and other new products have made great efforts to segment the market, and continue to be optimistic about the simultaneous rise of volume and price under the strong product cycle of the company. It is estimated that the company’s EPS in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 0.74, 1.23 and 1.53 yuan respectively.
Risk tip: short-term core shortage affects sales, sales of new models are lower than expected, raw material prices rise, etc.
