\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released the production and sales express in February 2022. The company sold 70792 vehicles in February, a year-on-year increase of – 20.5%. By brand, the sales volume of Harvard brand in February was 41994, a year-on-year increase of – 31.2%; The sales volume of wey brand was 4432, with a year-on-year increase of + 103.1%; The sales volume of Great Wall pickup truck was -116137% year-on-year; The sales volume of Euler brand was 6261, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.1%; The sales volume of tank brand was 6468, a year-on-year increase of + 96.0%.
The short-term pressure on sales is mainly affected by the shortage of chips. The company’s sales volume in February was – 20.5% and – 36.7% year-on-year and month on month respectively, and the output was – 16.9% and – 36.6% year-on-year and month on month respectively. The company’s sales decline is mainly due to the insufficient supply of Bosch ESP caused by the shortage of chips. Bosch is the exclusive supplier of ESP configuration for the company’s main models. The company is actively promoting Bosch group headquarters and chip suppliers to jointly formulate output improvement plans, and strive to quickly solve the problem of parts supply.
With the optimization of product structure, the new car cycle in 2022 will continue. From January to February, the sales volume of the company’s models above 150000 yuan increased to 15.5%, the proportion of intelligent models increased to 88.1%, and the models of lemon, tank and coffee intelligent technology brands accounted for 75.1%. At present, among the models that have been determined to be listed in 2022: in terms of Haval brand, Haval cool dog is the second heavy-duty model of Haval dog. In terms of Euler brand, ballet cat, punk cat and lightning cat will be listed one after another to further enrich the company’s product matrix in the field of pure electricity; In terms of wey brand, mocha dht-phev equipped with lemon hybrid DHT was officially launched on March 1, and the card will be launched in the high-end new energy market within the year; In terms of tank brand, the tank 500, which is positioned as medium and large-scale business luxury off-road, will be listed on March 18. The new models supported by the company’s new platform have strong product power, and the end consumers have high recognition of the company’s new products. The listing of new models will further enrich the company’s product matrix.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: we are optimistic about the launch rhythm of the company’s new models in 2022, and the continuous optimization of product structure will drive the improvement of performance. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.78 billion yuan, 10.53 billion yuan and 12.21 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.74, 1.15 and 1.33 yuan respectively. The closing price on March 8, 2022 corresponds to the PE values from 2021 to 2023, which are 41, 27 and 23 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the mitigation of core shortage in the industry is less than expected; The sales volume of passenger cars is lower than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The development of new energy technology is less than expected.
