\u3000\u30 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) 01 Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 9.441 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 187 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the operating revenue reached 3.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.0% and a month on month increase of 70.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 101 million yuan, an increase of 62.6% year-on-year and 83.6% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 59 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 169.3% and a month on month increase of 63.9%. EPS0. 18 yuan, the performance is in line with expectations.
Charging business: the new energy vehicle market presents a high outlook, with strong downstream demand. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in 2021, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) sold 3.521 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 158%. According to the data of the Ministry of public security, the total number of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in reached 7.84 million, accounting for 3% of the total number of cars, an increase of 60% over 2020. Car ownership in 79 cities across the country exceeded one million, with a year-on-year increase of 9 cities. The increasingly concentrated charging demand helps to further improve the utilization of charging piles, so as to break through the break even line.
Charging business: the policy continues to be supported. Over the past year, the state has successively issued a number of incentive policies to promote and support the further development of the charging and switching industry and build a mature infrastructure network for the promotion of new energy vehicles. At the end of 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the implementation plan for invigorating industrial economic operation and promoting high-quality industrial development, which proposed to release the consumption potential in key areas, accelerate the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, and accelerate the construction of charging piles and other supporting facilities. In February this year, Minister Xin of the Ministry of industry and information technology said that in view of the problem of "difficult charging" of old residential areas and highways, it will accelerate the construction of charging and power exchange infrastructure, promote the realization of information sharing and unified settlement, and constantly improve the charging convenience of new energy vehicles. At present, relying on its own charging network, the company has built the "world's largest charging network comprehensive security management platform". In the future, it is expected to take "digitization" as the starting point to solve the pain points related to charging and form a closer cooperative relationship with governments at all levels.
Charging business: the competition in the industry is becoming increasingly fierce, and the gross profit margin is declining slightly. It is expected to turn losses into profits by relying on the first mover advantage and technical barriers in the future. According to the data of the national charging alliance, in December 2021, China's public charging piles increased by 55000, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, the number of charging piles was 1.147 million, and the vehicle pile ratio reached 7:1. Among them, the number of companies operating more than 10000 units rose to 13, an increase of 4 compared with 2020. New entrants have made the price war in the industry increasingly fierce. It is estimated that the average service charge of the company's charging business will decrease from 0.47 yuan / wh in 2020 to 0.42 yuan / wh in 2021. The 2021 annual report disclosed that in the field of public charging, the company operated 252000 charging piles, with a market share of more than 32%; The annual charging capacity exceeded 4.2 billion kwh, with a market share of 38%, both ranking first in China. It is expected that in the future, with the steady progress of the company's Bo project, the utilization rate of charging piles will be further improved, and it will take the lead in turning losses into profits in key layout cities, which will help to get rid of the vortex of price war.
Box type substation business: coal system contributed to the main growth. During the reporting period, the company signed 208 sets of modular substations, and the performance of modular substations is far ahead in the industry. The downstream demand of the company's box type substation products is strong. In 2021, the relevant business realized an operating revenue of 6.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%; Among them, the coal system contributed 130 million yuan of operating revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 523%, making breakthroughs in oil network management projects and coal intelligent box substation projects.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.49 yuan, 0.87 yuan and 1.15 yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 85% in the next three years. Considering that the company's future expansion leads to certain uncertainty in the profitability of the new layout charging pile, the "hold" rating is maintained.
Risk warning: industrial policy risk, technology iteration risk, market competition risk, bad debt risk of accounts receivable.
