\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released February sales data: 71000 units were sold in February, down 21% year-on-year and 37% month on month.
The shortage of Bosch ESP parts limited the production capacity, which was flat with the industry on a month on month basis. Bosch is the exclusive supplier of the company’s main model ESP configuration. The supply shortage of Bosch ESP limits the production capacity in February. Coupled with the disturbance of the Spring Festival, a total of 71000 units were sold in February, with a year-on-year decrease of 21% and a month on month decrease of 37%. The month on month performance is basically the same as that of the whole industry (year-on-year + 26.9% and month on month – 32.6%). By brand, Haval, wey, tank, pickup truck and Euler sold 41994, 4432, 6468, 11637 and 6261 units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 31% / + 103% / + 96% / – 23% / – 15% and a month-on-month increase of – 40% / – 13% / – 38% / – 10% / – 53% respectively. Among them, 5009, 7423 and 19620 sets of divine Beast / big dog / H6 are sold respectively; Latte DHT sold 2387 sets, with a month on month increase of 52%, which is expected to climb further; Gun / Fengjun sold 8512 / 3125 sets respectively; There are 4066 good cats sold. At present, there are still more than 20000 undelivered orders for black-and-white cats. The tentative receipt of orders can avoid the long waiting cycle (about 3-4 months at present) affecting the brand reputation. Secondly, due to the rise of raw materials and the shortage of chips, parts are preferentially tilted to new models such as good cats and ballet cats to ensure profitability.
The three major technology brands are blessed, and the proportion of high-value + intelligent products continues to increase. The proportion of models based on lemon, tank and coffee intelligence (released in 2020m7) continued to increase, reaching 75.1% this year. From January to February, the proportion of the company’s cumulative sales of models above 150000 yuan increased to 15.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1pct, mainly contributed by the increase of the proportion of wey and tanks. From January to February, the proportion of models equipped with L2 and above increased to 88.1%. The subsequent climbing of high-level intelligent models such as divine beast and wey is expected to further consolidate the core competitiveness of intelligence.
In March, the shortage of Bosch ESP is expected to be alleviated, and the overseas expansion plan is steadily promoted. At present, the company is working with Bosch headquarters to formulate an output improvement plan, actively expand point B suppliers and strengthen supply chain security. It is expected that the shortage of parts in March is expected to be alleviated and the production and sales will become positive year-on-year. In terms of Russian business, the company has previously hedged some assets, and the risk cannot be accurately quantified, but the expected loss is limited; In addition, more models from Malaysia and Vietnam will be officially launched in Paris and Singapore in the first half of this year. In addition, it is expected to lead other Western European car show companies to officially launch wey in the first half of this year.
The tank 500 is about to be delivered, and many new models such as lightning cat are worth looking forward to. The tank 500 is expected to be officially delivered on March 18. The heat remains high and is expected to contribute significant performance increment. Many high margin new models such as Euler brand ballet cat / lightning cat / punk cat and wey dream will also be listed one after another. With the gradual improvement of chip shortage and the expansion of honeycomb energy production capacity, the sales of new models are worth looking forward to.
Investment suggestion: maintain the “Buy-A” rating, and the six-month target price is 45.5 yuan / share. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to reach 6.78 billion yuan, 11.50 billion yuan and 15.57 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the current market value, PE is 52.7, 31.1 and 23.0 times respectively, and the six-month target price is 45.5 yuan / share, corresponding to 36.5 times PE in 2022, maintaining the “Buy-A” rating.
Risk tip: continuous shortage of chips; The sales volume of new models is lower than expected; Overseas business expansion was less than expected.
