\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 30 Beijing Chieftain Control Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300430) )
The impact of the epidemic has been gradually eliminated, and the equity incentive scheme shows development confidence
According to the performance forecast of the company in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be 97-109 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60.0% ~ 79.8%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is expected to be 86-98 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 66.3% ~ 89.6%.
In November 2021, restricted shares were granted to the incentive objects for the first time. The performance assessment requires that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2020 (RMB 60 million) be taken as the base. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company (excluding equity incentive expenses) from 2021 to 2023 shall not be less than 60% / 115% / 179%, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 97 / 130 / 168 million.
The rehabilitation business is encouraged by the policy, focusing on the grass-roots level, and the development can be expected
1) the policy supports the development of rehabilitation, and the national and provincial rehabilitation support policies have been issued one after another. Rehabilitation medical treatment is a key part of the strategy to deal with population aging. Population aging is superimposed with the improvement of payment ability and rehabilitation awareness, and the demand for rehabilitation is increasing. National and local rehabilitation support policies have been issued one after another. At the national level, the notice on printing and distributing opinions on accelerating the development of rehabilitation medical treatment has been issued. Henan, Zhejiang, Guangdong Sichuan and other provinces have also issued rehabilitation support policies. 2) The rehabilitation equipment market of township hospitals is still in its infancy, and long Zhijie focuses on the grass-roots blue ocean market. Since its establishment, long Zhijie has actively explored the tertiary hospital market and formed a high brand awareness; In the future, the company will gradually sink its target market from tertiary hospitals to county and township primary medical market. According to the China Health Statistics Yearbook, the number of township health centers reached 35762 in 2020. At present, the rehabilitation equipment market of township health centers is still in its infancy and belongs to the blue ocean market. Long Zhijie has a successful case in the overall rehabilitation solution of township health centers. In the future, he will focus on the grass-roots level and the development of rehabilitation business can be expected.
The overall stability of pharmaceutical intelligent manufacturing business
Pharmaceutical and biological intelligent manufacturing business mainly includes automatic control system, industrial software and system equipment. In 2021h1, the intelligent manufacturing business achieved an operating revenue of 321 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.52%; The net profit was 269226 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year. In 2021h1, the amount of newly signed and won orders of the company was 526 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28%. We expect to maintain steady growth in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation model
We estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 924 / 1094 / 1262 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.88% / 18.44% / 15.31%. Excluding equity incentive expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 98 / 131 / 171 million yuan. Referring to the 24 times PE of similar companies in 2022, taking into account the policy support attitude towards rehabilitation and the development period of the company's grass-roots rehabilitation business, the company is given 30 times PE, corresponding to the market value of 3.9 billion, the target price is 14.42 yuan, and the company is given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of fluctuations in the performance of pharmaceutical intelligent manufacturing business, the risk of less than expected sales of rehabilitation equipment, the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic, the risk of less than expected policy implementation and intensified market competition.
