\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 899 Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) )
The company issued a performance express, which is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 17.607 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 34.02%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.91%. The revenue side of the company maintained high growth, mainly due to the steady growth of traditional core business, and the rapid growth of new business kelip and Jiumu sundry agency, a large retail store.
Continue to promote high-end products, improve channel efficiency, and maintain the steady growth of traditional core business. On the product side, the company continues to introduce high-quality IP and promote the IPD integrated product development mode. The categories developed through this mode grow better. Under the condition of "reducing the quantity of new products by half", the effect of "reducing the quantity of new products" is significant. On the channel side, the company is committed to transforming from wholesalers to retailers, continuously improving channel efficiency, and continuously enabling dealers and terminals with the help of digital tools, such as using Chenguang alliance app to more effectively connect headquarters, partners and terminal stores, so as to improve the overall operation efficiency and retail capacity.
By optimizing product mix and standardizing store operation, Jiumu's profitability has been steadily improved. As a leading business in the industry, Jiumu will play an important role in Chenguang brand upgrading and channel upgrading. At present, the average floor efficiency of Jiumu is about 180 Yunnan Yuntou Ecology And Environment Technology Co.Ltd(002200) 0 yuan / floor. The company will continue to optimize the commodity portfolio and promote the improvement of profitability through standardized store operation. As of the first three quarters of the 21st year, Jiumu sundry agency had achieved an operating revenue of 697 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 93.38%. The company has 436 Jiumu sundry agencies (a net increase of 75 compared with the end of the 20th year). In the future, it is expected to maintain the opening speed of 100 new stores every year.
Under the background of consumption upgrading, it is expected to promote brand upgrading through the increase of the proportion of high-quality cultural and creative products. Referring to the experience of European and American countries in promoting quality education and paperless office, the company expects that the total scale of the stationery industry will be limited by the "double reduction". The company is expected to gradually promote the new five-year strategic plan by increasing the proportion of high-end products and superimposing the operation capacity of the channel end.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the company's traditional business relies on strong product power, brand power and channel power. The moat is difficult to shake, and the layout of new business and new channels is forward-looking. The high-quality cultural and creative business gives vitality to the growth of traditional business, and Jiumu accelerates its expansion. It is optimistic that it will continue to improve the market share of high-quality cultural and creative business by relying on the existing supply chain and brand advantages. Benefiting from the policy of centralized office procurement, klip has developed rapidly in recent years and is expected to continue to expand in the future. We are optimistic about the long-term development of the company. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 years will be RMB 1.811/2.118 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.35% / + 16.99%, corresponding to pe27x / 23x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the financial data is the preliminary accounting data, and the specific data shall be subject to the annual report; The expansion of new businesses such as kelip and retail stores is less than expected; Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; Macroeconomic fluctuations, etc.
