\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Event:
On March 8, 2022, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) released the annual performance express of 2021. The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 145538 billion yuan, an increase of 98.19% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 145.47%, and the basic earnings per share was 7.85 yuan.
Key investment points:
The volume and price of main products rose simultaneously, and the company’s profit increased significantly
In 2021, the company expects to achieve a revenue of 145538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 145.47%. Among them, 2021q4 company is expected to achieve a revenue of 38.220 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.93% and a month on month decrease of 3.63%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 5.108 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.86% and a month on month decrease of 15.03%.
The company’s annual performance increased significantly. On the one hand, it benefited from the significant increase in the production and sales of the company’s main products such as polyurethane, petrochemical and fine chemicals. Among them, the first phase of the large ethylene project was successfully started in November 2020 and continued to increase the load; The technical transformation of MDI unit in Yantai Industrial Park was completed in February 2021, and the production capacity was expanded from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / A to 1.1 million T / A; Through technological transformation, the production capacity of 300000 t / a MDI unit of Hungary boside chemical company increased to 350000 T / A in October 2021. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the total MDI output of Shandong and Zhejiang in China was 1.6 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 33%.
On the other hand, the price spread of the company’s main products also showed an expanding trend in 2021. According to wind, the average market price of aggregated MDI in 2021 was 1986493 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 37.41%; The average market price of pure MDI was 2233890 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 25.25%. The price difference between polymerized MDI and pure benzene was 1383513 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 24.73%; The price difference between pure MDI and pure benzene was 1630911 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 12.70%. The price increase is not only for polyurethane products, but also for petrochemical and new materials products. The price trend of chemicals reflects the tension between supply and demand caused by dual control of energy consumption, power and production restriction and force majeure of devices under the background of demand maintenance. This wave of industry boom cycle brought by the epidemic and environmental protection is expected to accelerate the increase of the global market share of China’s leading enterprises, and then continue to increase the competitiveness and profitability of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) and other leading enterprises.
TDI is booming and Wanhua’s production capacity is expanding steadily
Affected by the recent rise of tdq13, the average price of tdq13 continued to rise by 26.96% year-on-year, reaching an average of 25.25% year-on-year increase as of 2028; The price difference between TDI and toluene reached 1233175 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 22.93% and a month on month increase of 40.48%. The boom continued to rise. At present, the company has a TDI capacity of 650000 tons / year, which will fully benefit from the recovery of the industry boom. Meanwhile, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) plans to invest 1.927 billion yuan to build a 250000 T / a TDI expansion project in Fujian Industrial Park. The project and Fujian 800000 T / a PVC project were started on February 7, 2022. The TDI project is expected to be put into operation in 2023. With the steady expansion of TDI capacity, the company’s competitiveness and voice in TDI industry will continue to increase.
Joint stock of carbon fiber company, multi-point layout of new materials
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) clarify the strategic positioning of three industrial clusters of polyurethane, petrochemical, fine chemicals and new materials, continue to invest in R & D in the field of new material products, accelerate the construction of projects under construction and accelerate the industrial transformation of new products. At present, the company has arranged the production capacity of sap, PC, PMMA, TPU, HDI, etc. at the same time, ternary battery materials, biodegradable polyester materials, NMP, lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, polyether amine, etc. are also under continuous planning and construction. Meanwhile, recently, the official website of the antitrust bureau of the State Administration of market supervision disclosed the case of establishing a new joint venture between Baowu Carbon Industry Technology Co., Ltd. and Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Co., Ltd. Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) plans to join hands with Baowu carbon industry to establish a new joint venture in Zhejiang Baowan Carbon Fiber Co., Ltd. to layout the polyacrylonitrile (Pan) based carbon fiber market, in which Baowu carbon industry holds 51% equity, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) holds 49% equity. Through the cooperation with Baowu carbon industry, Wanhua will enter the carbon fiber market and further expand its territory in the field of new materials. With the continuous expansion and landing of the company’s new material business, the new material business is expected to become a new performance growth point of the company.
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) spread index is in the historical quantile of 38.35%
As of February 28, 2022, Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) price spread index in 2022 was 100.95, 0.90 lower than Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 38.35%, down 1.05 percentage points from Q4 in 2021. Among them, the price spread index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) polyurethane sector in 2022 was 125.74, an increase of 9.03 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 38.94%, an increase of 6.27 percentage points over Q4 in 2021. The price spread index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) petrochemical sector in 2022 was 81.40, a decrease of 10.65 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 28.95%, 18.68 percentage points lower than Q4 in 2021. The price spread index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) new materials in 2022 was 53.98, a decrease of 13.32 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 17.92%, down 16.32 percentage points from Q4 in 2021.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 24.649 billion yuan, 26.638 billion yuan and 31.019 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 11, 10 and 9 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: economic downturn; The project construction is not as expected; The market fluctuates greatly; New products are not as expected; Environmental protection and safety production; Competition in the same industry has intensified.
