\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 908 Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) )
Event overview
The company released the performance express. In 2021, the company realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company of RMB 923 million / 78 million / 61 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 44% / 70% / 95%. The revenue slightly exceeded the expectation, and the net profit met the performance forecast. 21q4's revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company were RMB 199 / 07 / 0 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 51% and month on month acceleration, and the net profit in the off-season was reversed.
Analysis and judgment:
In terms of splitting, we estimate that: 1) in 2021, the export revenue increased by 30% year-on-year to 624 million yuan, of which 21q4 increased by 33% year-on-year to 106 million yuan, slightly faster than 21q3; 2) In 2021, the brand business revenue increased by 86% year-on-year to 299 million yuan, of which 21q4 increased by 83% year-on-year to 83 million yuan, still maintaining rapid growth. Further split and look at the brand business. In 2021, Da mu / Xiao Mu increased by 145% / 18% to RMB 210 / 89 million respectively.
In 2021, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3pct. Our analysis mainly comes from the improvement of the net profit rate of brand business. We estimate that the net profit rate of brand business in 2021 was 5.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8pct, of which the net profit rate of big mu / small Mu was 9% / - 3% respectively; The net interest rate of export is relatively stable. We estimate that the net interest rate of export in 2021 will be 10%.
Investment advice
The recent decline in share price is mainly due to market concerns about the impact of the situation in Russia on the company's OEM business, but according to our analysis, the proportion of Russian customers is only 3%, including Malacca sourcing PTE Ltd.(SportmasterLtd.) It fell out of the top five in 2015, and its income continued to decrease in 2016 due to the impact of the Russian economic recession.
At the current time point, in the short term, (1) OEM business: there are sufficient orders, and we estimate that it is expected to maintain a growth rate of 20-30% in 2022; (2) Brand business: Damu's sales continued to boom, and its online sales still more than doubled in January. In 22, the company launched the new Lansheng series. The products use Oxford cloth to solve the problem of yellowing and mildew of cotton curtains. The floor height is 2 meters, the doors are opened on all sides, and can also be used in combination with other tents. The price is also higher than that of previous tent categories, and the price is about 4000 yuan. In the medium term, the company announced the change of the raised investment project on January 7, which changed Xiaomu's store opening project into expanding Damu's storage, that is, from 16000 m2 to 46000 m2 in five years, and the corresponding storage area CAGR = 24%, boosting market confidence. In the long run, the current domestic / export revenue accounts for 3:7, the future domestic sales is expected to account for more than half, and the superimposed net interest rate is expected to improve to more than 15%. Considering that the income exceeds the expectation and the net profit is slightly lower than the expectation, the income in 202123 is adjusted from RMB 915 / 12.4 / 1519 million to RMB 923 / 12.56 / 1537 million, the net profit attributable to the parent is adjusted from RMB 82 / 124 / 159 million to RMB 78 / 1.25/160 million, and the EPS is adjusted from RMB 1.23/1.86/2.39 to RMB 1.17/1.88/2.4. The closing price on March 9, 2022 is RMB 33.97, corresponding to the PE of 21-23 years is 29 / 18 / 14x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating. For the valuation of the standard peer snowpeak, if the brand business of Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) 22 is 30-45 times and the OEM is 20 times, the corresponding target market value is 3-3.79 billion yuan and the target price is 45-56.8 yuan.
Risk tips
The product iteration is not as expected, the epidemic situation is uncertain, the supply of campsites is not as expected, and there are systemic risks.
