Review of market and operation: the overall market of securities companies this year is relatively low. As of December 16, 2021, the annual cumulative yield of Shenwan securities industry is - 2.57%, ranking 21st in the industry, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.82 percentage points. The market experienced twists and turns throughout the year, mainly focusing on the three main lines of wealth management, large capital pipeline and Beijing stock exchange. In terms of performance, the performance of securities companies continues to be stable and positive. According to the data of China Securities Association, in the first three quarters of this year, 140 securities companies achieved an operating revenue of 366.357 billion yuan and a net profit of 143.979 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rates of operating revenue and net profit were 7.00% and 8.51% respectively.
Trend Outlook of monetary policy and securities industry: in terms of monetary policy, in the case of great downward pressure on the economy, the liquidity is expected to show a marginal positive trend in 2022. Driven by the growing wealth of residents, the relocation of real estate assets and the transfer of residents' wealth to equity assets, China will enter the era of wealth management. For the asset management business of securities companies, the transformation to active management is an inevitable choice for the direction of asset management of securities companies. In the future, the transformation of active management of securities companies may be further deepened and face greater development space. In addition, under the background of the era of wealth management, wealth management business is facing long-term development space. The central economic work conference set the tone for the full implementation of the registration system in 2022, and the reform of the whole market registration system can be implemented in 2022. In 2022, as a newly established stock exchange, Beijing stock exchange is expected to contribute incremental space to the investment banking business of securities companies. Under the registration system, investment banks play the role of value discoverer rather than the original channel role. Investment banking business will provide enterprises with full business chain and full life cycle business services, so as to create diversified income increment for investment banks, and there is a broad space for investment bank capitalization increment. Under the trend of institutionalization, the development prospect of Pb business and derivatives business of securities companies is optimistic.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the operating revenue and growth rate in 2022 will be 531.2 billion yuan (6.49%), 580.5 billion yuan (+ 16.36%) and 627.1 billion yuan (+ 25.70%) respectively under conservative, neutral and optimistic scenarios, and the net profit and growth rate will be 2019 billion yuan (9.12%), 220.6 billion yuan (+ 19.23%) and 238.3 billion yuan (+ 28.80%) respectively under conservative, neutral and optimistic scenarios.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, driven by loose liquidity, good market environment, stable operation of the Beijing stock exchange and the implementation of the reform of the whole market registration system, it is expected that the overall performance of the securities industry will be better in 2022. With the timely reduction of reserve requirements and the relaxation of monetary policy margin, investors' risk preference and valuation will be improved, while the overall valuation of the securities industry is still at a historical low, Located in the last 11% since 2000, we think the securities market in 2022 can be expected. On the investment main line, we suggest paying attention to three main lines: high-quality head securities companies, prominent wealth management advantages and securities companies with top investment banking business. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030. SH), East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) (300059. SZ), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (601688. SH), Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) (600958. SH) are mainly recommended. See the text of the report for details.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside and interest rate fluctuation risk; The market trading activity is low; The secondary market fluctuates greatly; Risk events of stock asset management projects; Credit default risk; The business development of the securities company is not as expected; Strengthening financial supervision policies; Capital market reform was lower than expected.
