Cement: under high and stable profits β Poor opportunities, pay attention to individual stocks α opportunity. On the demand side, infrastructure investment may be strengthened under the expectation of stabilizing the economy, and the frequent statements of recent policies indicate that the funds of real estate enterprises are expected to ease and the investment is expected to recover. It is expected that the cement demand will remain stable next year, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1% – 3%. On the supply side, the supply pattern of the cement industry is bound to improve year by year under the general direction of tightening the peak shifting production policy, strengthening environmental protection and carbon neutralization. On the profit side, the profit per ton is likely to be flat year-on-year, the cement price is expected to fluctuate slightly with the cost of coal and electricity, and the overall profit of the industry and the company’s performance will remain stable. In the context of high and stable profitability, we believe that the industry β Investment opportunities are small, and more attention should be paid to the growth of the enterprise itself. China building materials (New Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) ), which recommends rapid repair of financial statements, Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) which vigorously expands aggregate business, and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) which is expected to double its performance in the next four years, as well as excellent private enterprises with small business volume but excellent operation quality.
Glass: demand is expected to recover, optimistic about upward price elasticity. The supply side benefits from the concentrated arrival of the cold repair period and the production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games. The short-term production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the annual production capacity is expected to remain stable or increase slightly next year. In terms of demand, the current downturn in downstream demand is only temporary, and the demand has not disappeared, but delayed. It is expected that the downstream demand will increase after the easing of real estate enterprises’ funds. In terms of price, at present, the price of float glass is at the bottom stage. It is expected that the price in the first quarter will rise month on month compared with the current one. However, in the whole year of 2022, the price is expected to fall year-on-year. The price of float glass will be high in 2021, and the trend of high profit in the industry may be difficult to appear again. It is recommended to pay attention to the excellent enterprises accelerating the layout in the fields of photovoltaic, electronics, pharmaceutical glass, etc., and Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) and Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) are recommended.
Glass fiber: supply and demand are in tight balance, and the high view gaseous potential will be maintained. Glass fiber has been in a high state for nearly a year and a half, and the price has continued to consolidate at a high level. Looking forward to next year, the new capacity is relatively limited, and the demand is expected to continue to rise with the steady growth of downstream new energy vehicles, wind power, 5g and electronics industries. It is expected that the tight situation of supply and demand will continue, the cyclical volatility of the industry will weaken, and the price will continue to operate at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the steady expansion of production capacity, make continuous breakthroughs in high-end products and significantly benefit the targets in the field of downstream demand explosion, recommend China’s leading glass fiber enterprises with significant cost advantages China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) and vigorously layout Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) in the field of wind power and lithium membrane.
Consumption of building materials: long-term logic remains unchanged, and the current layout is a good opportunity. In the second half of this year, due to the restriction of downstream real estate funds and the rise in the price of raw materials and commodities, the performance of consumer building materials enterprises was significantly affected, and the share price callback was large. Under the recent frequent policy statements, it is expected that the funds of real estate enterprises are expected to recover, and the performance of consumer building materials enterprises upstream of the real estate chain is expected to improve. The profit side is expected to return to the previous level through subsequent corresponding increase in product prices or natural decline in raw material prices. The long-term logic of consumer building materials enterprises, including the continuous improvement of concentration and category expansion, has not changed. They are optimistic about the fundamental reversal and valuation repair of consumer building materials enterprises next year. Recommend Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) which is the leader of gypsum board in China and vigorously expand waterproof and coating business, as well as Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) which is the leader of plastic pipe retail and steadily expands in categories and regions.
Risk tip: infrastructure and real estate investment is in the doldrums; High price of raw materials; Deterioration of industry competition pattern; The price of the product has dropped; Sales fell short of expectations.
