Ping An View:
Why do coastal provinces attach so much importance to offshore wind power. Offshore wind power has many advantages, including being close to the load center, not occupying land and effectively stimulating the local manufacturing industry. For a long time, its disadvantages are also very prominent, that is, the cost of kwh power is high and depends on subsidies to a large extent; Based on its outstanding advantages, despite the withdrawal of central financial subsidies since 2022, the power of provinces to develop offshore wind power remains unchanged, and Guangdong Province even issued provincial subsidies to support the development of offshore wind power. We believe that coastal provinces attach great importance to offshore wind power based on the comprehensive consideration of multiple key factors such as low-carbon energy development, independent energy supply, land resource constraints and industrial driving, and offshore wind power may be the optimal solution under the comprehensive consideration of multiple factors.
The problem of high cost of offshore wind power is expected to be resolved quickly. After the completion of land rush loading in 2020, the speed of large-scale wind turbines will be increased, and the cost of kilowatt hour power will drop rapidly; The current situation of offshore wind power is similar to that of onshore wind power in the same period last year, and offshore wind power is expected to usher in similar technological progress and cost reduction in the future. According to the recent bidding situation, the development situation of offshore wind power has exceeded the expectations of the wind power industry and the capital market. The main equipment such as offshore wind turbines has been greatly reduced, large-scale affordable offshore wind power projects have emerged and bidding has been opened one after another, and the offshore wind power industry has shown strong resilience; At present, the development of offshore wind power after de subsidy is not a hard landing, but the industrial chain quickly digests the impact of de subsidy through technological progress and opens the era of parity.
Towards the main power supply, there is huge room for growth. We believe that when offshore wind power enters the era of parity, the core problem of high cost, which originally restricted the development of offshore wind power, can be resolved, and the positioning of offshore wind power in China’s energy system is expected to rise. We are optimistic that offshore wind power will become one of the main power sources in major coastal provinces. According to the estimation that offshore wind power will contribute 15% of the power demand of coastal provinces in 2030, the installed capacity of offshore wind power in China will exceed 200GW in 2030, and the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in China will be about 11gw by the end of 2020. Offshore wind power is expected to usher in a golden age of rapid development.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to grasp the core manufacturing links of offshore wind power, including wind power complete machine, submarine cable, pipe pile, DC transmission equipment, etc. In terms of wind turbines, semi direct drive is expected to become the mainstream. It is recommended to Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , and pay attention to Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) and other offshore wind turbine parts suppliers; In terms of submarine cable, the current competition pattern is relatively clear. In the future, the leading enterprises are expected to maintain or even expand their competitive advantage, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and pay attention to Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) ; In terms of pipe piles, it is recommended that Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) which is expected to enter the overseas supply chain system and greatly expand China’s production capacity, and pay attention to Haili wind power, etc; In terms of DC transmission equipment, it is recommended to pay attention to the suppliers of flexible DC converter valve and control and protection system Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) .
Risk tips: 1. The technological progress and cost reduction rate of offshore wind power are lower than expected, resulting in the parity process of offshore wind power lower than expected. 2. In 2022, the new installed capacity of offshore wind power in China is likely to decline, and the performance of some enterprises may be under pressure. 3. Some manufacturing links may intensify competition and lead to lower than expected profitability. 4. The phenomenon of overseas trade protection may intensify, which will affect the sea going process of China’s sea breeze manufacturing industry.
