Review: structure driven market in 2021. Since the beginning of 2021, the auto sector has increased by 18.5%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 23.4%. We believe that the market is mainly driven by structural factors: 1) the structural increment of new energy & export is prominent: the cumulative sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the first November of 2021 increased by 133.8% year-on-year, and the export volume increased by 121.6% year-on-year; 2) Acceleration of intelligent penetration of vehicles: in 2021, the carrying rate of intelligent cockpit of new vehicles in China is expected to exceed 50%, and the carrying rate of L2 automatic driving function is expected to be close to 20%.
Recovery: driven by the simultaneous release of deferred demand and replenishment of stock, the batch sales elasticity in 2022 can be expected. We believe that the insufficient inventory depth from 8m21 has a significant impact on the demand release. The batch sales in 2022 are expected to achieve year-on-year + 11.8% under the benchmark assumptions of actual demand growth of 5.0%, 380000 retail deferred release and 200000 net replenishment. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on the actual demand growth and net replenishment. Under the constraint that the inventory coefficient is less than 1.9, it is estimated that the growth range of passenger car batch sales in 2022 will be 6.8% (actual demand growth of 1%, net replenishment of 0) to 16.6% (actual demand growth of 8%, net replenishment of 600000).
Innovation - Electrification: 1) hybrid: in the first November of 2021, Byd Company Limited(002594) DMI models are popular, driving the sales of hybrid cars in China by + 174% year-on-year. In 2022, the new generation DHT hybrid models of great wall, Geely and Chery will be listed one after another, paying attention to the sales trend of relevant models and the adaptation progress of Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) related products; 2) Electric drive: the 11m21 three in one electric drive market reaches 56% +, and the multi in one drive has significant advantages in transmission efficiency, volume power density, weight power density, etc. it pays attention to inbor, which has the R & D and production capacity of multi in one products, Jee Technology Co.Ltd(688162) ; 3) Energy supplement: fast charging (platform high voltage) and power exchange can alleviate consumers' mileage anxiety and will become an important differentiated competition point for vehicle enterprises. In terms of fast charging, 7 + independent vehicle enterprises released 800V platform scheme in 2021, and 8 + provinces and cities implemented power exchange related policies in 2021. It is recommended to pay attention to connector enterprises Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) that benefit from the promotion of platform high voltage and power exchange policies Cwb Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(605005) 、 Zhejiang Yonggui Electric Equipment Co.Ltd(300351) 、 Shenglan Technology Co.Ltd(300843) 。
Innovation - intelligence: 1) lidar. In 2021, China's L2 carrying rate has been close to 20%. With L2 + / L3 becoming the target of the next stage of intelligence, 19 local brands will be launched with lidar models in 2022. Pay attention to the mass production progress of complete machine suppliers Suteng juchuang, Hesai technology, Huawei, tudaton and Xinjiang livox; 2) Hanging in the air. It is expected that from 2022 to 2023, independent brands will accelerate the launch of air suspension models (10 + brands). In the local supply chain, Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (acquisition of AMK), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) (there are multiple mass production projects for air springs), Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) (based on the advantages of commercial vehicle customers) and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (comprehensive layout of wire controlled chassis) are expected to benefit.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the industry will usher in a good development pattern of demand recovery + accelerated implementation of electric intelligent innovation in 2022. 1. For the whole vehicle, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) with large replenishment space are recommended. 2. Recommended suppliers of electric intelligent incremental parts in terms of parts: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (EPB + brake by wire), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (lamp control), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (intelligent lamp), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (domain control), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), etc.
Risk tip: the progress of core shortage mitigation is less than expected, the recovery of the automobile industry is less than expected, the process of automobile intelligent industry is less than expected, and the development of new energy automobile industry is less than expected.
