Market Review
In December 2021 (until the closing on December 27, 2021), CSI 300 rose or fell by + 1.81%, the automobile industry rose or fell by – 4.15%, and CITIC class I 29 industry ranked 26th. Trucks (+ 15.48%) ranked first and special purpose vehicles (- 11.86%) ranked last in the subdivided industries.
Industry Review
Automobile: in November, commodity prices were running at a high level. At the same time, as the chip supply problem has not been completely solved, automobile production and sales are facing great pressure, but the overall situation is better than that in previous months. The monthly production and sales volume were 2584600 and 2521600 respectively, with a month on month increase of + 10.90% and + 8.09% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of – 9.22% and – 8.96% respectively.
Passenger cars: the production and sales volume of passenger cars were 2.2315 million and 2.2192 million respectively, with a month on month increase of + 12.24 and + 9.23%, a year-on-year increase of – 4.19% and – 4.59% respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 0.39 PCT and + 0.28 PCT respectively over the previous month, and the cumulative production and sales volume increased by 0.58% and 1.64% respectively over the same period in 2019., Specifically: 1) the monthly sales of subdivided models decreased year-on-year, but the sales of cars and SUVs increased month on month; 2) The sales volume of independent brands increased year-on-year, and the monthly sales share increased significantly year-on-year; 3) The monthly sales volume of luxury car retail continued to decline year-on-year.
Commercial vehicles: in November, the monthly production and sales of commercial vehicles were 353100 and 329600 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 31.82% and – 30.20% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of – 4.92 PCT and – 0.51 PCT respectively. The annual cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles were 4.2925 million and 4.4286 million respectively, with a cumulative sales volume of – 5.30% year-on-year, and the cumulative production and sales volume decreased year-on-year compared with the previous month. The year-on-year production and sales of freight cars were – 33.69% and – 31.75% respectively, and the year-on-year production and sales of passenger cars were – 14.91% and – 16.48% respectively.
New energy vehicles: in November, the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles were 457200 and 449900 respectively, with a month on month increase of + 15.09% and + 17.33% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of + 131.31% and + 124.77% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, and the production and sales volume maintained a high growth trend year-on-year. Specifically, plug-in hybrid vehicles grew the fastest, and pure electric vehicles also doubled the monthly production and sales volume year-on-year.
Listed companies: under the influence of multiple factors such as relatively high base in the same period, rising prices of upstream raw materials and tight chip supply, the year-on-year decline in November was generally lower, only GAC and JAC increased year-on-year, and SAIC and Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) decreased relatively less year-on-year. On the whole, the sales volume increased month on month, among which SAIC, GAC and great wall increased significantly month on month. It is expected that the overall automobile market sales will still decline year-on-year in the next month, but the sales of new energy vehicles will continue to increase.
Investment advice
In the short term: in the industry, the technology of new energy vehicles is gradually mature, and intellectualization gives new energy vehicles more premium space. The price of new energy vehicles has a certain cost performance compared with fuel vehicles. Therefore, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will gradually increase in 2022, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach more than 5 million in 2022, Among them, high-end new energy and plug-in hybrid have great market potential. In addition, the upstream supply of automobiles has been gradually alleviated, and the sales of fuel vehicles have a warming trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the new energy parts industry chain and vehicle companies, such as Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) .
Risk tip: China’s economic growth is lower than expected; The overseas covid-19 pneumonia epidemic continued to spread.
