Consumption will be weak in 2021 and bright in 2022. We start from the thinking of industrial chain, not limited to one link of listed companies. (1) In 2021, the epidemic situation was repeated, and the consumption capacity and willingness decreased. Since the epidemic, the growth of per capita disposable income has slowed down, and the median slowdown is more obvious. At the same time, residents' Consumption Willingness is low, and their willingness to save has increased. The growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods has slowed down, and the growth of catering has been under pressure. (2) Weak terminal prices and rising costs have squeezed the profits of the industrial chain. 2020h2 has entered the post epidemic era. Due to the decline of consumption capacity and willingness, the terminal prices of consumer goods are weak. At the same time, the prices of raw materials and packaging materials have risen together, highlighting the cost pressure. The profits of the industrial chain have been squeezed, resulting in the accelerated destocking of channels, and the price and inventory of consumer goods in 2021 are facing a decline. (3) Looking back on 2021: the sector's earnings ranked low, and its profitability was obviously under pressure. As of December 17, 2021, the yield of the food and beverage sector was - 5.0%, ranking the eighth lowest among the Shenwan industry, and the annual yield was lower than - 4.92% of the CSI 300. After the Spring Festival in 2021, due to the weak consumption performance, the P / E ratio of the sector began to fall. Since the end of September, with the price increase of the sector, Catalytic market up. 2021Q1-3 liquor Baijiu net interest rate is flat, mass products to mother net interest rate decline. (4) Looking forward to 2022: prices will rise in a cycle, and performance is expected to accelerate release. With the normalization of the epidemic and the development of home consumption scenarios, the marginal impact of the epidemic on food and beverage production and sales will be smaller and smaller. Since the third quarter of this year, food and beverage prices have been rising. In 2022, food and beverage prices and inventories are expected to enter a double upward cycle, and actively pay attention to the release of profits. From the rhythm Look, we expect that the price increase in 2022q1 will gradually complete the transmission to the terminal. Under the low base of 2022q2, food and beverage profits are expected to increase significantly. In 2022q3-q4, as the cost increase decreases or even falls, the price increase profit elasticity will continue to release.
Two year epidemic stress test, value regression. The epidemic has limited impact, such as the total volume of Baijiu is limited, the price of beer has accelerated, and the speed of yeast and quick-frozen has increased rapidly. The epidemic situation mostly interferes with the mentality and value chain. With the repair of catering, the industry is expected to return to the right track in an all-round way; The logic of industry growth is expected to continue the logic of 2015-2019. The industry has experienced a price war, and the rest is the king. We should pay enough attention to the dragon one dragon two with more adjustments. At present, the price cycle has been started, the inventory increase cycle is expected to come, and the performance is expected to accelerate the release. If the epidemic situation is controlled properly and the macro performance is good, it is expected to obtain excess returns. Referring to the above research and judgment, our main recommendation focuses on the following directions:
The strong is a steady income company. Considering that under the background of the normalization of the epidemic, the total growth of the short-term demand side may be suppressed, we should pay more attention to the average price increase and profit release brought by the medium and long-term consumption upgrading, and the leading companies in the industry have strong system competitiveness and stable operation. We mainly recommend Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , China Resources beer, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Chenguang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(300138) and other sub industry leaders;
High growth companies with rapid expansion of the industry. We believe that the growth trend of baking, prefabricated vegetables and other industries is expected to accelerate. Considering that the demand side is generally weak under the repeated epidemic, and the company is in a high growth track and has certain competitive strength, The new products (or new businesses) of the company are prone to generate excess profits. We recommend the prefabricated vegetables, frozen industries, Baijiu liquor, cheese industry, Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) and so on.
Companies with cycle reversal and dilemma reversal. We believe that, on the one hand, the epidemic and other factors affect the company's production, sales and value chain. With the control of the epidemic and the enhancement of consumer confidence, the company has great flexibility, such as Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Haidilao, leading oil enterprises and meat products. We suggest paying attention to Yihai international. On the other hand, the development speed of the company has been relatively slow for various reasons, and it is still expected to accelerate after the recent adjustment, such as Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) . It is recommended to pay attention to Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Zhou Heiya.
Sorting of sub industries: (1) drinks: the Baijiu demand is less disturbed in the post epidemic era. Since November, the price rise has been rising. Demand for high-end wine is strong, price increases and conduction are expected to exceed expectations, the regional high-end has been established and the revenue and profit are expected to continue to grow. The high-end beer is accelerating obviously, superimposing the bonus of 2022 raise, and the profit is expected to exceed expectations. International weakening. (2) Food: we believe that as the epidemic control continues to improve, the demand is expected to continue to repair. The implementation of price increase will promote the overall price from factory to terminal. On the one hand, it will improve the company's profitability, and the profit is expected to exceed the expectation in 2022; on the other hand, the channel profit will recover, the enthusiasm will increase, and the inventory is expected to enter an upward cycle.
Risk warning: the risk of continuous spread of the global epidemic; The consumption upgrading process is not as expected; Risk of food safety incidents; Policy risk; Deviation risk of data use, calculation and analysis
