Report cause
Mutual treasure announced on December 28 that it would stop operation at 24:00 on January 28, 2022, and the latest two phases of contributions would be borne by mutual treasure platform.
Core view
Low participation threshold, rapid growth in the initial stage, and activation of insurance demand for wide area traffic. Mutual treasure is a mutual aid program established by ant group in November 2018 (formerly the mutual insurance product established in cooperation with sime mutual life in October of that year), the number of participants reached 70 million in six months, reaching 101 million at the peak, and has rescued 179000 sick members since its establishment. In essence, mutual treasure attracts people with imperfect risk protection through mutual aid products with low threshold and high decision-making freedom, and through social interaction Achieve gradual penetration. At the same time, the assessed amount and rescue information are updated twice a month to effectively build a bridge of communication with users and promote the establishment of long-term trust relationship. At the same time, on the basis of broad user access, continue to activate their risk protection awareness, and then lead to a series of products such as good medical insurance and national insurance with slightly higher threshold but strong cost performance, so as to finally realize sales transformation and improve customer life cycle value. We believe that the effect of mutual assistance plan on improving residents' risk protection awareness is worthy of recognition.
After the waiting period, the compensation increased significantly, and the marginal of the insured population decreased, forming a vicious circle of adverse selection. The assessed amount has gradually increased since 2h19, and the serious illness mutual assistance plan has increased from less than 0.1 yuan at the beginning of the year to 6-8 yuan, mainly due to the rapid increase of the recipients, from less than 10 people at the beginning of the year to 300 people in the middle of the year, and finally to 4000 people per month at the end of the year. Although the promotion of assistance applications after the waiting period is one of the catalytic factors, the liberalization of insurance restrictions for people over 40 years old, the superposition of online participation in mutual aid programs and the lax review of past symptoms have further exacerbated the adverse selection risk, and the corresponding compensation allocation in recent three years has gradually increased, which are 29, 91 and 152 yuan respectively, As a result, the number of insured persons has gradually decreased after reaching the peak in August 2020, leaving only 71.18 million so far. The vicious circle of adverse selection is gradually emerging.
The regulatory constraints were strengthened, the substitution effect was improved, the drainage of mutual assistance plans was more difficult, and online mutual assistance withdrew from the stage. At the initial stage of the establishment of the mutual assistance plan, the regulator gave a prompt on the relevant risks. Last year, it also issued the measures for the supervision of Internet insurance business to clarify the licensing requirements. In addition, the premiums and apportioned expenses are basically the same, but Huimin insurance has been launched one after another with a stronger upper limit on government endorsement and compensation, which has intensified the competition and made it more difficult to drain the mutual aid plan to a certain extent. Since this year, about 10 mutual aid products have been shut down, and online mutual aid has entered a suspension period. We believe that the opportunity for online mutual aid to return to the stage in the future is very slim, Traditional insurance companies with brand effect and channel resource advantages may take over.
Investment proposal and investment object
The activation of residents' security demand has not been fully transmitted to the improvement of insurance penetration, and the commercial insurance market space is still broad. The end of the network mutual aid channel will enable traditional insurance companies with multiple channel advantages to gradually show their competitiveness. On the one hand, they will give play to the brand effect and transform potential customer resources through online marketing. On the other hand, they will use offline agent channels to realize product docking in the whole life cycle, and improve customer stickiness and secondary development with the help of differentiated service experience.
Maintain the positive rating of the industry. Recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (601318, buy) with firm life insurance reform, gradual recovery of investment return and perfect diversified business layout; At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the release of China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (601601, not rated) of the "long aviation partner" plan to build a high-quality agent team; In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to AIA (01299, not rated) after the "sub reform" to explore regional expansion and bank insurance cooperation to promote channel sinking.
Risk statement
The growth of agent channel is less than expected, the sales of Internet channel is less than expected, the long-term interest rate is down, the equity market fluctuates, the impairment risk of equity investment is accrued, and the policy risk is.
