Report summary
The layout of new energy by coal enterprises is a matching behavior of ability and willingness. The supply side structural reform during the 13th Five Year Plan period has realized the rapid clearing and substantial optimization of the industry's production capacity, and the cash inflow from the industry's business activities has continued to rise. The continuous "carbon neutralization" policy has a very strong negative impact on the industry's investment in new production capacity, and the cash outflow from investment activities has continued to decline, The deviation between the two cash flows led to a significant increase in cash on hand. The monetary capital of the coal industry was 429.7 billion yuan at the end of the third quarter of 2021, 2.5 times that at the end of 2016. In this context, in order to seek a long-term way out, coal enterprises actively layout new energy business, which is a behavior matching their ability and willingness. The new energy layout of coal enterprises is mainly concentrated in three fields: green power operation such as photovoltaic and wind power, hydrogen energy and new energy storage.
Green power operation transformation direction: the leader of transformation is power investment energy (formerly Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited Of Inner Mongolia(002128) ), with a total installed capacity of 1.33gw of new energy (equity installed capacity is also 1.33gw), and the total green power operation projects under construction and planning are about 4.01gw (equity is 2.72gw), about three times the current production scale. Other coal enterprises are mainly planned and constructed, of which China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) It is planned that during the "14th five year plan" period, the new energy installed capacity will not be less than 600 MW each year (mainly wind power and photovoltaic), and the layout will be carried out through construction and operation and equity investment and M & A; China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) Said to accelerate the layout and construction of wind power and photovoltaic projects by means of independent investment and construction, merger and reorganization, joint venture and cooperation; Yankuang energy strives to achieve the installed capacity of new energy power generation of more than 10 million kW in 5-10 years; Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) focuses on equity investment and has invested heavily in Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and other industry leaders; Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) at present, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation put into operation is 32.8 MW; Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) strategic layout of photovoltaic industry, planned as 1GW; Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) build a new energy demonstration base in the coal mining subsidence area, and plan to build a photovoltaic project of 0.26gw.
Hydrogen energy transformation direction: the leader is Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) . Meijin has comprehensively arranged the hydrogen energy industry chain and implemented the industrial plan of "one point, one line and one network". It not only deeply arranged the hydrogen energy production field, but also has a strong competitive advantage in fuel cell vehicles and parts. Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) propane dehydrogenation (PDH) project is also working in the field of hydrogen energy, and the company plans to enter the field of photovoltaic operation. Relying on the advantages of large-scale coking production, China Xuyang group takes the lead in arranging hydrogen energy production and filling industries in Inner Mongolia and Hebei. Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) hydrogen production through photovoltaic power generation, develop green hydrogen industry and promote low-carbon emission reduction of methanol production.
Energy storage transformation direction: some enterprises in the industry cooperate with third-party companies to lay out chemical energy storage such as sodium ion battery, physical energy storage such as flywheel energy storage, and plan to build high-efficiency photovoltaic modules, which provides another path support for coal enterprises to transform the field of new energy and new materials.
Investment strategy: under the dual carbon goal, coal enterprises urgently need transformation. A number of industry pioneers such as power investment energy, Yankuang, Shenhua and Meijin mainly focus on three fields: new energy operation, hydrogen energy and energy storage. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and willingness, The transformation in the direction of new energy is conducive to improving the overall sector valuation level (at present, the PE valuation is 5-6 times), the coal assets need to be repriced and the investment value of the sector is optimistic. The transformation of green power operation focuses on Power Investment energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) , Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) , etc., and the transformation of hydrogen energy focuses on Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) etc.
Risk tips: (1) safety production risk; (2) technology change risk; (3) project progress is less than expected risk; (4) policy change risk; (5) the risk that the public information used in the Research Report lags behind or is not updated in time.
