In November, the decline of single month life insurance premium converged, the growth rate of property insurance premium expanded, and the epidemic repeatedly affected purchasing power and future income expectations, curbed policy consumption demand, superimposed the short-term results of the transformation of insurance enterprise agent team, and the liability end of the industry is still under pressure. From January to November, the insurance industry realized an original premium income of 4164.406 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.27%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points compared with the previous October. According to the monthly data, life insurance premiums continue to be under pressure and property insurance premiums pick up. In a single month in November, the insurance industry realized an original insurance premium of 259.081 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.74%, and the growth rate became positive. Among them, the premium income of life insurance business was 110.684 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.02%, and the decline converged by 3.56 percentage points month on month; The premium income of property insurance business was 94.336 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.93%, and the growth rate increased by 2.94 percentage points month on month; The premium income of health insurance business was 45.988 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.08%, and the decline converged by 5.29 percentage points month on month; Accident insurance business achieved a premium income of 8.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, with a month on month decrease of 1.35 percentage points.
The performance of life insurance premiums of listed insurance companies was differentiated. Property insurance premiums continued to recover Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) took the lead in starting a good start in 2022. The single month premiums were affected, and the year-end sprint performance of other listed insurance companies promoted the recovery of single month premiums. From January to November, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) and The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) realized life insurance premium income of 4483.01/5934.00/2012.96/155.113/125.961 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.06% / + 1.22% / – 0.64% / + 1.67% / + 4.09% respectively. Compared with the previous October, the growth rate was – 0.22pp / – 0.36pp / + 0.28pp / + 0.13pp / + 3.10pp. The comprehensive reform of automobile insurance has been completed for one year, the base has decreased, and the property insurance premium has continued to improve. From January to November, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) realized property insurance premium income of 243.320/405.228/140.63 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.29% / + 1.58% / + 3.86% respectively, and the growth rate was + 1.06pp / + 0.91pp / + 0.11pp compared with the previous October.
The scale of industrial assets expanded and the proportion of fixed income assets increased. By the end of November 2021, the total assets of the insurance industry were 24.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.67% over the end of the previous year, and the growth rate was 0.76 percentage points higher than that at the end of October; The net assets were 2.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.74% over the end of the previous year, and the growth rate increased by 0.33 percentage points over the end of October; The balance of capital utilization was 22.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.99% over the end of last year, and the growth rate was 0.83 percentage points higher than that at the end of October. The proportion of fixed income asset allocation of insurance enterprises increased and the proportion of equity asset allocation decreased. By the end of November 2021, the allocation proportion of fixed income assets (bank deposits + bonds) was 50.56%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points over the end of the previous year; the allocation proportion of equity assets (stocks and funds) was 12.30%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points over the end of the previous year; the proportion of other types of investment was 37.14%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points over the end of the previous year.
The new regulations on the development of old-age insurance institutions were issued to focus on the main industry of old-age insurance. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on standardizing and promoting the development of old-age insurance institutions, requiring old-age insurance institutions to further focus on the main industry of old-age insurance and better serve the construction of multi-level and multi pillar old-age insurance system. The notice regulates business operation from the aspects of development orientation, business direction, risk isolation, rectifying the source and strengthening supervision. The new regulations for the development of pension insurance institutions require pension insurance institutions to focus on the main pension industry and focus on the development of commercial pension insurance Pension security management and enterprise (occupational) annuity fund management business, terminate or divest the insurance asset management business irrelevant to pension, clean up the existing short-term personal pension security management business, have a certain negative impact on the business scale and performance of pension insurance institutions in the short term, and guide pension institutions to take the road of specialization, correct the source and develop continuously and healthily in the long term.
Investment suggestion: 2022 has a good start, and the short-term effect of the transformation of the agent team of insurance enterprises is difficult to show. With the addition of a high base, the improvement of life insurance still needs time. The impact of comprehensive reform of automobile insurance gradually subsided, property insurance continued to pick up, and the inflection point appeared. The current price corresponds to the P / EV of the insurance sector in 2021, which is between 0.43x-0.7x, and the valuation is at a historical low. It is recommended to pay attention to the configuration value. In terms of individual stocks, we continue to recommend China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (601601. SH), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (601318. SH).
Risk tip: the risk of continuous downward movement of the long end interest rate curve; Risk of insurance product sales falling short of expectations.
