Key investment points:
Review: the PV index is low before and high after, and the annual installed capacity continues to be strong. From January to October, the newly installed capacity of PV in China was 29.88gw, a year-on-year increase of 36.56%, of which the installed capacity of household was 13.57gw, a year-on-year increase of 104.68%. The rising price of upstream raw materials has suppressed some installed demand. Under the support of the policy, the annual installed capacity is expected to reach 50-55gw.
Silicon material production expansion, photovoltaic industry will meet the high boom in 2022. In 2021, the photovoltaic industry chain was affected by the sharp rise in the price of silicon material. With the gradual production of new silicon material capacity from Q4, the shortage of silicon material may be effectively alleviated in 2022. It is expected that the silicon material capacity in 2022 can support 230gw of installed capacity. With the reduction of silicon material price, the profitability of downstream links is expected to be repaired. At present, China has sufficient reserves of installed projects, and next year is expected to usher in a big year of photovoltaic installation. The new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China may reach 75gw in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 30% +.
The policy structure is becoming more and more perfect, and the whole county is distributed + large base two wheel drive. On June 20, the National Energy Administration released the county wide distributed development pilot scheme, and 676 counties were officially selected into the pilot list, with a total scale expected to exceed 170gw; In addition, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, China plans nine clean energy bases with a total scale of more than 400gw. In terms of policy construction, with the State Council issuing the notice on printing and distributing the action plan for carbon peaking before 2030, China's carbon neutral "1 + n" policy system will be gradually improved, and the target of renewable energy proportion will be realized on schedule from the aspects of new energy planning, electricity price reform, energy storage and peak shaving.
Overseas: carbon reduction has become a consensus, and demand has maintained rapid growth. At present, more than 130 countries and regions around the world have put forward the "zero carbon" goal. Many countries promote their energy transformation by setting long-term goals for photovoltaic development and giving financial incentives or subsidies. From the perspective of installed capacity demand in 2021, traditional photovoltaic installed capacity countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany and Australia are still in the forefront, emerging markets such as Chile, Pakistan and Greece are emerging, and the number of GW markets has increased to 20. It is expected that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 200GW + in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 20%.
Investment strategy: we recommend the following three main lines for investment in the photovoltaic industry in 2022: first, the leader of vertically integrated components with optimized competition pattern and expected profit; Second, the inverter leader benefiting from the acceleration of going to sea and the rapid development of energy storage; Third, silicon material enterprises with leading cost control and market share. It is suggested to pay attention to: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Risk warning: the consumption of new energy is less than expected; Risk of policy changes at home and abroad; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Technology substitution risk, etc.
