US carbon emission standards will be tightened again. On December 20, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released the final version of CAF é fuel consumption economic policy: 1) the final EPA plan is determined to reach 55mpg and 161g / MI in 2026 (the 2020 version is 43.3mpg and 205g / MI, and the latest proposal version is 52mpg and 171g / mi); 2) the incentive multipliers of advanced technology are EV-1 / 1.5/1.5/1/1 and phev-1 / 1.3/1/1 from 2022 to 2026 respectively. The fuel consumption economy and carbon emission standards have reached the strictest in history.
After the bill on rebuilding a better future, which includes the policy of increasing the tax credit for electric vehicles, was passed by the house of representatives in November, it is currently in the Senate stage of deliberation. Although the implementation of the policy has been delayed recently due to the objections raised by individual members of the Democratic Party, its core controversy has nothing to do with new energy. We maintain our expectations for the high growth of the U.S. electric vehicle market. It is expected that with the support of policies and the promotion of supply cycle, the U.S. Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle sales will reach 600000 in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 80% and a penetration rate of 4%; In 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 3.54 million, with a penetration rate of 20%; By 2030, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 9 million, achieving the medium-term penetration target of 50%.
Industry trends: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) signed an advance payment agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ; Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) increase and expand the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode material; Beijing solicited public opinions on the opinions on strengthening the construction and management of electric vehicle charging facilities in residential areas. Last week, the share price of new energy automobile industry chain company adjusted, and the net value of new energy theme fund fell.
Investment suggestion: with the strengthening of policy and auto enterprises, the penetration of new energy vehicles in the global market is ushering in a new round of acceleration, and the industry boom is rising. It is recommended to pay attention to the main line of new forces represented by Tesla and the catch-up process of new models such as Volkswagen, and recommend leading and second-line elastic targets. For the whole vehicle, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (2333. HK) and Geely Automobile (0175. HK) are highly recommended; for battery materials, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ; for motor electronic control, Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ; for lithium battery equipment, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) and Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) ; for lithium and cobalt, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) are recommended.
Risk tips: 1. The growth rate of electric vehicle production and sales slows down. With the continuous growth of the production and sales base of new energy vehicles, it will be more and more difficult to maintain a high growth rate, and the introduction of mainstream models for the public has become the key; 2. The price war in the industrial chain intensified. The continuous decline of subsidies and the continuous investment of new production capacity have led to the pressure of price reduction in all links of the industrial chain; 3. The influx of overseas competitors accelerated. With the growth of the Chinese market and the dilution of subsidy policies, the pace of overseas giants entering the Chinese market is accelerating, which has a new impact on the industrial pattern.
