Core view
The decline of short-term subsidies will not change, but will be good in the long term. Endogenous supply drives high sales growth: policy side: in the short term, the subsidies for new energy vehicles in some European countries and China will decline in 2022, which will have a certain impact on the sales of middle and low-end models whose audience is price sensitive; The superposition of us subsidy policies in 2022 and the landing of new EPA carbon emission targets in 2023 will accelerate the penetration of electric vehicles. Supply side: car companies have formulated electrification strategic plans and sales targets to seize the new energy vehicle market. In 2022, the global high-quality new models will be launched. We expect that the popular models will essentially drive the audience's demand for new energy vehicles and promote the high growth of sales. To sum up, we predict that the global sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 10.166 million in 2022, an increase of 55% at the same time; Among them, the sales volume of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 5.132 million, an increase of 49% at the same time; The United States will reach 1.32 million, an increase of 100% at the same time.
The advantages of price repair superposition integration have emerged, and the turning point of battery profit has reached: Volume: the demand for electric vehicles and energy storage two wheel drive lithium batteries has increased rapidly. We expect that the global demand for lithium batteries will be about 908.4gwh in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 52%, and manufacturers' orders will be full. Profit: price side: the quotation of Q4 battery has been improved in 21 years, and the price of battery cell has been repaired; Cost side: the capacity of head battery enterprises in the upstream of the industrial chain will be put into operation in 2022, and the integration advantage will gradually appear to reduce the cost of raw materials.
The supply and demand pattern in the middle reaches began to differentiate, and attention was paid to the shortage link and the leader of undervalued value: the diaphragm and copper foil link were subject to equipment supply. In 2022, the new capacity was limited, and the high-quality capacity was in short supply; The increase of diaphragm price and copper foil processing cost is expected to bring profit logic. Superimposed with the catalysis of terminal demand, it is about to usher in a double rise of volume and profit. Negative electrode graphitization and PVDF are subject to the limitation of energy and environmental impact assessment. The supply and demand pattern will maintain a tight balance and enjoy high unit profit. The positive pole enterprises with high-quality production capacity will have relative investment value due to the resurgence of iron and lithium in the positive pole link, the speed-up of high nickel, the clearing of low nickel ternary, the integrated layout of upstream resources and the high proportion of high-quality production capacity. With the continuous release of electrolyte production capacity, 2022 will be the logic of volume increase and profit decrease; After the deterioration of the competition pattern, the cost is king. With the clearance of low-end production capacity, the head effect will be further strengthened, focusing on the leader with low valuation and strong profitability.
Investment suggestions: Global resonance, the sales volume of electric vehicles continues to increase, focusing on three main investment lines: 1) the turning point of profitability in the battery link has arrived, and the simultaneous rise of volume and price is about to be ushered in, with emphasis on [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ] and [ Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ]; 2) For the diaphragm, copper foil, PVDF and negative pole links with tight supply and demand next year, it is recommended to focus on [ Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ], [ Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ], [ Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) ], [ Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ], [ Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ], [ Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ] and [ Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) ]; 3) Supporting industrial chain opportunities in the US and European markets, emphasizing the mid and upstream suppliers of battery manufacturers in the US and Europe, with emphasis on [ Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ], [ Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ] and [ Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ].
[risk tip]: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected, and the price of upstream resource products continues to rise; The competition pattern of industrial chain deteriorates; Technological change.
