Apt Medical Inc(688617) (688617)
Key points of the report:
The number of patients with arrhythmia is huge, and the market scale of cardiac electrophysiology is broad
According to China cardiovascular health and disease report 2019, there are about 30 million patients with arrhythmia in China, including nearly 15 million patients with supraventricular tachycardia and atrial fibrillation. Catheter ablation has gradually become a first-line treatment with excellent clinical efficacy, and the amount of cardiac electrophysiological surgery is expected to continue to increase. According to Frost & Sullivan data, China's electrophysiological device market is expected to grow from 4.67 billion yuan in 2019 to 21.11 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.22%. In 2019, the company's market share was only 3.6%, with broad growth space.
Coronary access devices are monopolized by foreign brands, and centralized procurement is expected to accelerate domestic substitution
According to Frost & Sullivan data, the market scale of coronary intervention devices in China in 2019 was 6.18 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 16.54% from 2015 to 2019. It is expected that the market scale is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2024. Foreign brands occupy an absolutely dominant position, with imported manufacturers led by telmao and Medtronic accounting for more than 80%. In 2019, the company's market share was only 2%. With the gradual opening of belt procurement of balloon, guide wire catheter and other products, the company is expected to quickly increase its market share.
Layout the peripheral intervention field and further expand the therapeutic consumables
In 2019, the company officially entered the field of peripheral vascular intervention and achieved rapid growth with access products such as microcatheters and contrast catheters. Subsequently, the company will further distribute therapeutic consumables such as vena cava filter and aortic stent in the peripheral field, which is expected to effectively cooperate with pathway consumables to achieve rapid volume.
The electrophysiological mapping system has been approved to market, which is expected to drive the rapid and large-scale consumption of consumables
In January 2021, the company's three-dimensional cardiac electrophysiological mapping system was approved by nmpa, which is the first "magnetoelectric fusion" three-dimensional mapping system put into clinical use in China. The synchronous approval of magnetic positioning cold saline ablation catheter has greatly enriched the company's product line of three-dimensional ablation surgery. The company is expected to take the lead in the supraventricular tachycardia treatment market with relatively simple surgery, and drive the rapid volume of consumables products.
Investment advice and profit forecast
As the leader of electrophysiological consumables in China, the company is expected to achieve high-speed growth driven by "catheter ablation + vascular intervention" and fully enjoy the domestic alternative dividend. We expect that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 791 / 1156 / 1630 million respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 211 / 308 / 426 million, the EPS will be RMB 3.15/4.60/6.36/share, and the corresponding PE will be 84 / 57 / 41 times, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk statement
New product development is not as expected; Product sales promotion fails to meet expectations; Price reduction risk of volume purchase; Overseas expansion is less than expected; Capacity expansion was less than expected.
