Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754)
Core view: in the long run, due to the franchise system and medium and high-end products, the cycle attribute of chain hotel group is weakened, the growth attribute is enhanced, and the valuation center is moved up. In the short term, the supply of the hotel industry has accelerated after the epidemic, and the current industry is at the bottom of the upward cycle. It is optimistic that Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) as a leading enterprise, it will benefit from the industry trend, and in the medium and short term, it will benefit from the acceleration of expansion and management reform, ushering in a high elastic recovery of performance.
For the first time, it will be rated as "overweight". Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) firm in the franchise strategy, late start first come in the medium and high-end strategy, and clear growth attributes. At present, based on the assumption of industry cycle repair and efficiency improvement under management reform, we expect the company's operating revenue to be RMB 11.085 billion, RMB 15.243 billion and RMB 17.366 billion from 2021 to 2023, with growth rates of 12.0%, 37.5% and 13.9% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 26, 1408 and 1.978 billion yuan, with the growth rate of 105.3%, 522.3% and 40.5% respectively. EPS is 0.21/1.32/1.85 yuan, corresponding to PE is 274.9/44.2/31.4, which is covered for the first time and rated as "overweight".
The business model is gradually changing, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to reverse. From the perspective of business model, franchise system and medium and high-end trend weaken the industry cycle attribute and enhance the growth attribute. From the perspective of industry supply and demand, the supply of economy hotels has accelerated in the epidemic, the oversupply situation is expected to reverse, and the upward cycle may come. The demand for medium and high-end hotels is growing rapidly, and the supply in the epidemic situation will be cleared slightly, which will continue a good supply and demand pattern.
Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : keep up with the times and grasp the trend. The company grasps the development trend of the industry and actively makes strategic adjustment to help it become a leading enterprise in the industry. Since its establishment, the company has been open to franchise. After 2015, the franchise system has become its core expansion means, and the operation efficiency has been gradually improved. In terms of the trend of medium and high-end hotels, the company did not take the lead, but adjusted its strategy in time to determine the leading position of high-end hotels through mergers and acquisitions.
On the margin, focus on the quantity and quality of expansion at the bottom of the company's cycle and the effectiveness of management reform. Since the outbreak, the supply and demand pattern of the industry has gradually improved, and RevPAR is on the rise as a whole. Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) the pace of expansion has gradually accelerated and surpassed other hotel groups, with sufficient reserve hotels and a high proportion of medium and high-end hotels. Since April 2020, the company has continuously promoted the reform of "one center, three platforms", the management expense rate has decreased quarter by quarter and the operation efficiency has been improved. stay β Uplink and α Under the joint action of improvement, the company's performance is expected to usher in an explosion.
Risk tips: (1) the recovery rhythm of epidemic situation is the most important risk for the current profit recovery; (2) the risk that the company's expansion speed is lower than expected; (3) the risk of service quality and brand; (4) the risk of intensified competition among hotel groups; (5) the risk that the information used in the research report is not updated in time.
