Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) (002637)
In the context of double carbon, bio based materials have ushered in great development, Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) mainly uses palm oil as raw material to produce oil chemicals and surfactants. It is a leading enterprise in oilization and surface activity. With the increase of Indonesian tariff and the optimization of competition pattern, the company's profit has increased significantly. The company's production expansion will accelerate in the next few years, and its performance is expected to achieve a big breakthrough.
Oil chemical industry: the pattern is improved, and the Indonesian base benefits from the tariff advantage
The demand for major oil chemicals in China is 3.87 million tons, with a market space of about 30 billion yuan. It is expected that the average annual growth rate will be 6% in the next three years. We expect that in 2021 / 2022 / 2023, the sales volume of the company's oil chemical sector will be 85 / 98 / 1.14 million tons, the gross profit per ton will be 1480 / 1520 / 1520 yuan / ton, the corresponding gross profit will reach 1.26/14.9/1.73 billion yuan respectively, and the average annual growth rate will reach 17.4% from 2021 to 2023. The company's competitive advantage is reflected in two aspects: 1) the export tariff of Indonesian palm oil has been significantly increased. The company's Indonesian subsidiary dukuda has the advantage of purchasing palm oil at a low price. The net profit in the first half of 2021 reached 170 million yuan, compared with only 20 million yuan in the same period last year. Indonesian companies still expand capacity. 2) The product structure is upgraded. Hangzhou Petrochemical plans to invest 20000 tons of OPO structural grease for high-end milk powder.
Daily chemical industry: the industry pattern has been continuously improved
The demand for anionic surfactants, the main product of China's daily chemical industry, is about 1.5 million tons (100%), and the market space is expected to be about 12 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 5% in the next three years. Benefiting from the optimization of the competition pattern, the gross profit of the company's daily chemical sector will reach 550 million yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 49%. The company has an annual production capacity of nearly 1.1 million tons, which will reach 1.5 million tons in 2023 (including cationic and non-ionic products according to the physical quantity), an increase of 36%. We expect that the sales volume of daily chemical industry of the company will be 57 / 74 / 940000 tons in 2021 / 2022 / 2023, and the gross profit per ton will be 1040 / 1066 / 1066 yuan / ton, corresponding to the gross profit of 590 / 790 / 1 billion yuan respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 29.8% from 2021 to 2023.
OEM: reshaping the OEM pattern of washing and care products will open the ceiling of the company's growth
The demand for toiletries in China is 14 million tons, and the market space is expected to be 13 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 9% in the next three years. The company plans to build a new production capacity of 1.5 million tons / year. Taking advantage of large-scale and integration, the company is expected to realize single ton profit and significantly increase sales of OEM products. We expect that in 2021, 2022 and 2023, the company's OEM sales volume will be 100000 / 42 / 1.12 million tons, and the gross profit per ton will be 174 / 400 / 400 yuan / ton. The corresponding gross profit is RMB 0.17/168/448 billion respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 407.5% from 2021 to 2023.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 812 / 1135 / 1533 million respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 10.0 / 7.1 / 5.3 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: risk of palm oil price fluctuation; Risk of changes in palm oil tariff policy; Risk that OEM promotion is not as expected; Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Environmental risk; Safety production risk; Risk of exchange rate fluctuation; Risks of import and export trade; China and overseas markets are not completely comparable, and the relevant data are for reference only
