Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
event
The company recently held the 2022 global dealer conference with the theme of practicing the "three new" requirements and promoting the high-quality development of Fenjiu in an all-round way. The "three new" refers to basing on the "new development stage", implementing the "new development concept and building a" new development pattern ".
Key investment points
It has achieved leapfrog development thanks to a long time of innovation
In the past five years, the company has achieved leapfrog development: 1) marketing organization reform: adhering to the "123456" marketing strategy, "133363" marketing work policy, "Trinity" talent training concept and five concepts of Qinghua Fen Liquor development, the company has formed a 31 + 10 regional organization management mode, realized a flat marketing organization system and introduced a market-oriented recruitment mode, Establish a marketing team with more than 5000 people. 2) Management: actively introduce terminal control system of Kyushu bank; The standard subjects of cost management have been formulated as a whole, and 84 subjects have been promoted at present; Younger management team. At present, Fenjiu has gathered potential energy and has prominent advantages in reform, category, product line and market. Four advantages have pushed Fenjiu into a new development stage: the Fenjiu billion yuan market has increased from 8 to 28 in 2017, the number of dealers has increased from less than 1000 to 2944 in 2017, and the number of terminal controls has increased from less than 10000 to 1 million in 2017, The average growth rate of the market in the south of the Yangtze River is 60%, the cumulative growth rate of Qinghua Fen Liquor in five years is more than 4 times, and the overall brand influence of Fen Liquor continues to improve.
Take the promotion of brand power as the first, and anchor the goal of "one third of the world"
Primary objective: brand promotion; Overall marketing plan: 133238. The company will achieve the primary goal of brand improvement through four "focus" + four "persistence": 1) focus on market structure optimization, product structure optimization, quality optimization and management improvement; We will strengthen strategic focus, deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises and persist in strengthening risk management. In the next step, Fenjiu marketing will focus on the overall reform strategy of "133238" Fenjiu marketing, that is, anchoring one goal ("one in three places"), fighting three battles (key battle of marketing systematization construction; key battle of product structure adjustment; key battle of brand value promotion), building three markets (focusing on large base market, East China market and South China market) Promote two major projects ("1s + 3M + 6p" international marketing system and Xinghua village brand / personalized brand strategy building project) Closely follow the three indicators (the sales index of Qinghua Fen Liquor, the terminal index of Qinghua 20 and the opinion leader group index of Qinghua Fen Liquor) and achieve the eight adherences (including adhering to the party construction leading marketing, cultivating the executive combat team, information construction and dealer structure optimization), so as to jointly write a new chapter of manufacturer cooperation, enterprise development and brand rise.
The blue and white series will continue to release its potential energy and make a good start in the coming year
2021 will be the year of brand development. The proportion of blue and white series will continue to increase, and the expansion outside the province will accelerate to lay the foundation for exceeding the expected performance. The next year will be a good start: 1) in terms of product structure, the company adheres to the strategy of controlling the low end, raising the high and hitting the high volume of blue and white, and strengthening the waist. Among them, the price of green 30 is stable, and green 20 continues the high growth trend in the early stage, In the future, the proportion of blue and white liquor in Fenjiu is expected to reach 40-50% / Bofen will strictly control the volume from the second half of the year. Although the growth rate has slowed down, the main line of structural upgrading will boost the improvement of profitability in the later stage / Panama will focus on laying the foundation and develop steadily this year. Next year, qing20 and Panama products are expected to become important products for strong waist; 2) In terms of market, the province will focus on stability in the future due to the high growth in the province this year or the strong demand for banquets due to the rapid economic development in the province; From the perspective of outside the province, the market around Shanxi still has great potential to be tapped. At the same time, it will further deepen the advantageous markets outside the province through refinement, and open up the blank market by increasing market cultivation; 3) In terms of a good start, Fenjiu is in a state of slightly controlling the goods as a whole, and some markets have begun to pay (it is expected to pay 35% before the festival, and the proportion of 22q1 payment collection is expected to be 40%). Although the management of the company has changed recently, we think it will not affect the company's good development trend, and a good start can be expected.
Beyond expectation logic: the revival version leads the high-end, and the nationalization process is accelerated or beyond expectation
The Renaissance version leads the high-end, the layout of blue and white liquor is super high-end, and the income of blue and white liquor may account for 40% - 50% of the Fen Liquor series. With the "fragrance cultivation of Bofen + excellent product quality + card mainstream consumption price belt + about 10% - 15% high channel profit", the Qinghua series has achieved remarkable achievements - the blue and white series has maintained a high-speed growth of 40% - 60% in 17-19 years, In the past 20 years, the company has achieved an increase of over 30% (revenue accounts for about 25% - 30%), and the revenue of 21h1 has reached 40%. Considering that the company's current product strategy is "reaching the bottom of high control" The launch of blue and white 40 China Dragon layout super high-end and blue and white 30 · revival version will further improve the brand image and open the volume and price space of blue and white 20. We expect that the compound growth rate of sales revenue of blue and white series will be higher than that of sub high-end liquor in the next 14th Five Year Plan period, and the proportion of blue and white revenue in Fen Liquor series may reach 40% - 50%. To the south of the Yangtze River, the expansion speed outside the province may exceed expectations. From 2016 to 2020, the CAGR of the company's sales revenue outside the province was 42.45%, far exceeding the expansion speed in the province, and the national strategy has achieved initial results. We believe that there are two highlights in the development outside the province in the future: 1) around Shanxi market: the overall market space of around Shanxi plate is about 180 billion yuan, and the share of Fenjiu market is less than 3%. With the upgrading of product structure dominated by qinghuafen and the further sinking of channels, The upgrading of product structure promotes the release of performance, and the central Shanxi plate still has great development potential. 2) Southern market: the market space in the south of the Yangtze River is large and the consumption price is high. Previously, the foundation of Fenjiu was relatively weak. With the southern market becoming the company's next key market and putting forward the goal of an average growth rate of more than 50% in three years, the market performance outside the province may exceed expectations in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation
We believe that Fenjiu will benefit from the strong performance of Qinghua and the accelerated expansion outside the province. At the same time, considering the low performance base of the company affected by the epidemic in 2020 and the company's revenue target of 30% + in 2021, the revenue growth rate from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 47.2%, 35.6% and 31.6% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 77.4%, 44.6% and 38.7% respectively; EPS is 4.5, 6.5 and 9.0 yuan / share respectively; PE was 73, 50 and 36 times respectively. In the long run, the performance has strong growth, the current valuation is cost-effective, and the buy rating is maintained.
Catalyst: continuous consumption upgrading and smooth introduction of high-priced products;
Risk warning: the two outbreak of China's epidemic situation affects the whole Baijiu sale of liquor. The sales of high-end liquor was less than expected; Management change risk.
