Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) (300662)
The industry space is vast, the penetration promotion space is large, and the competition pattern is excellent. The company’s linggong business has entered a period of rapid growth; Technology empowerment helps long-term growth, and future performance is expected to achieve high growth.
Key investment points:
The growth logic is long, and the flexible work business continues to grow at a high rate. The compound growth rate of linggong’s revenue in recent 8 years was 42.7%, and the growth continued to increase to 80.6% in 2021h1. The industry is in short supply, and the volume of the company’s flexible work business is still small (more than 30000 employees under management), which is far from meeting the demand of stock posts. The company has already laid out the whole industrial chain and stuck in the advantageous industry track; in the future, with the improvement of efficiency, the expansion of capacity boundary, the vertical and horizontal expansion of posts, it is expected to continue high growth.
The industry space is broad, and the competition pattern is excellent and scattered. According to iResearch consulting, it is estimated that the scale of China’s flexible employment market will reach 876 billion yuan in 2021 and 1066 billion yuan in 2022, breaking the trillion market, It will maintain a high growth rate (compound growth rate of 25% from 2020 to 2023). The industry is relatively scattered, and the market share of the three leaders ( Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , Wanbao Shenghua and Renrui talents) in 2020 (calculated by the number of flexible employees) is only 5.6%. According to insight consulting, the penetration rate of China’s flexible employment industry in 2019 is less than 1%, compared with the penetration rate of overseas mature markets in the same period (10% in the United States, 4% in Japan and 3% in the European Union), China’s penetration rate has more than 10 times the room for improvement.
Enable new technology services and open the second growth curve of performance. The company continues to increase its investment in science and technology, continuously improve the ecological model of “service + technology + platform” and link long tail customers. As of 2021h1, It has passed its four technology platforms (vertical recruitment platform, industrial Internet platform, official enterprise recruitment applet, SaaS technology platform) has reached more than 50000 customers, converted more than 20000 business opportunities, and generated more than 1280 platform paying customers. Driven by strong technology, it will continue to consolidate its competitive advantage in the future, help the company reduce costs and increase efficiency, break through the capability radius, consolidate its core recruitment capability and make contributions New growth pole of performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we are optimistic about the growth space of the flexible employment industry and the growth potential of the company as an industry leader driven by technology. The future performance growth mainly comes from the continuous high growth of the flexible employment business and the relay volume of new technology services. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 will be 66.65/100.69/15.066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 70% / 51% / 50%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 247 / 3.27/421 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33% / 32% / 29%. The corresponding dynamic PE: 43 / 33 / 25X, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk tips: changes in human resources industry policies; Repeated epidemic situation; Manage boundaries and bottlenecks; Advances affect cash flow; Business fluctuation of key customers; Foreign companies are not fully comparable,
