Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (002050)
1、 Analysis and judgment
Profitability is expected to recover, and the leading barrier of thermal management is deep
Since this year, the price of upstream copper and aluminum has increased relatively. The refrigeration business of the company is transmitted to the downstream part through the price transmission mechanism of raw materials; Auto zero business is under pressure this year. Looking forward to the future, with the transmission of raw material prices of auto parts to the downstream and the marginal slowdown or flat increase of copper and aluminum prices, the profitability of the company is expected to recover. The company has been deeply engaged in thermal management for many years. It has the first market share in the world in vehicle electronic expansion valves, new energy vehicle thermal management integrated components, Omega pumps and other subdivided products, forming systematic production capacity, customers and technical barriers, and is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry.
Auto zero business: benefiting from the rapid improvement of new energy vehicle sales and integration modules
21q1-3 company's auto zero business revenue was 3.332 billion yuan, an increase of 109.33%, and its net profit was 401 million yuan, an increase of 56.85%. The net interest rate is 12.03%. We estimate that the revenue from Xinneng cars accounts for about 80%. The company's customers cover most of the traditional cars and new forces in car manufacturing. The sales of major customers and other customers in North America are growing rapidly, and the company's revenue is increasing quarter by quarter. The company's shipment of integrated modules has increased rapidly. We estimate that the revenue of 21q1-3 integrated modules accounts for about 20%, driving the increase of single vehicle value. Looking forward to the future, the demand of downstream customers is growing rapidly. We expect that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2022 is expected to exceed 5 million, the output of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach more than 900000, and nearly 2.2 million new energy vehicles in the world. Benefiting from this, the company is expected to maintain a large double-digit revenue growth.
Refrigeration business: the penetration rate of electronic expansion valve continues to increase
The revenue of refrigeration business 21q1-3 was 8.387 billion yuan, an increase of 19.8%, the net profit was 892 million yuan, an increase of 6.65%, and the net interest rate was 10.64%. The penetration rate of electronic expansion valve will be improved. As the leader of electronic expansion valve, the company will fully benefit. In the refrigeration sector, the revenue of the commercial sector increased rapidly year-on-year, and yaweko has turned losses into profits.
2、 Investment advice
Considering the rapid growth of customers' demand for downstream new energy vehicles, the rapid rise of raw material prices, and the lag in price transmission and inventory digestion, we expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company to be 17.97, 27.54 RMB 3.793 billion (previously estimated to be RMB 2.204 billion, RMB 2.941 billion and RMB 3.977 billion), up 23%, 53% and 38% year-on-year respectively. The current share price corresponds to 49, 32 and 23 times of PE from 2021 to 2023. Considering that the company is the leader of thermal management, the auto zero business is expected to maintain a large double-digit growth, the price of raw materials is expected to be flat, and the price transmission is expected to be smooth gradually, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
3、 Risk tips:
The global demand for new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Capacity expansion is slower than expected; The price increase of upstream raw materials exceeded expectations; Downstream white power customer demand was lower than expected.
