Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) (688185)
Event: according to the company's announcement, the company's acyw135 meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine (CRM197 vector) was approved on December 29, 2021, becoming the first listed tetravalent meningitis conjugate vaccine in China, which is used for epidemic meningitis prevention of children aged 3 months to 3 years.
The meningitis vaccine pipeline of the company was officially formed and is expected to contribute 1 billion yuan of revenue. The company's mcv2 vaccine was approved and issued on 2021m9, and MCV4 vaccine was approved on December 29. Compared with other manufacturers, mcv2 vaccine of the company has good safety and immunogenicity. As the first four price product approved in China, MCV4 vaccine is not expected to have similar products on the market in the next few years, and the company has obvious first mover advantage. With Pfizer's sales team + independent sales model, the company's MCV series products are expected to occupy 10% of the neonatal market next year, corresponding to an income volume of about 1 billion yuan. At the same time, relying on the large cash flow obtained by covid-19 vaccine, the company continued to increase its R & D investment, with a R & D investment of 110 million yuan (+ 58.2%) in 21q3. The company's pipeline under research focuses on the layout of heavy varieties, such as 13 valent pneumonia vaccine in clinical phase III and PBPV vaccine in phase IA, which are progressing smoothly, and it is expected to enrich the company's product categories in the future.
Sequential vaccination and overseas export ensure the continuous and large volume of covid-19 vaccine, and there is no bottleneck in the approved production capacity of Shanghai base. The company is the only enterprise in China that has officially approved sequential vaccination other than inactivated vaccine. At present, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council has launched the enhanced vaccination of priority groups. According to the 6-month vaccination period, it is expected that the key groups will usher in the peak of enhanced vaccination from 2021q4 to 2022q1. In terms of production capacity, the preparation line of Shanghai plant has been officially approved. The total production capacity of Tianjin, Shanghai and Jiangsu is about 500 million agents. All plants in various places are in normal and stable working state, and the supply side is restricted by infinite speed.
The heterologous enhancement effect for mutant strains was excellent, and the inhalation dosage form was progressing smoothly. According to the data, After two doses of inactivated vaccine, one dose of adenovirus vector covid-19 vaccine was successively strengthened (inhaled dosage form), the neutralizing antibody titer against the pseudovirus of Omicron mutant strain is only slightly lower than that of the prototype strain, and 10 times higher than that after three doses of inactivated vaccine. The company is actively applying for the Eul certification of who and the emergency use of inhaled dosage form in China. The company is expected to expand orders outside China by virtue of the advantages of vaccination times and inhaled dosage form.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company's Q3 capacity release was less than expected. Combined with the company's equity incentive guidelines, we lowered the company's profit forecast. It is expected that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.09 yuan, 19.49 yuan RMB 22.21 (EPS was originally predicted to be 9.93 yuan, 21.92 yuan and 23.39 yuan). The average valuation of comparable companies in 2022 is 37 times, and the performance expectation of covid-19 vaccine is not considered in the valuation of comparable companies. We are optimistic about the platform value of the company's innovative vaccine. The revenue of covid-19 vaccine business accounts for a high proportion, but at present, the infection of Omicron mutant strain may be strong, resulting in a sustained demand for vaccination However, considering that the company's performance explosion in 2021 is mainly contributed by covid-19 vaccine, and there is a risk of substantial price reduction after all global orders are met, and the company's explosive performance has unsustainable risk, the company is given a valuation of 20 times the company's performance in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 389.8 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: there is a lower than expected risk in the marketing of new products; Risk of R & D lower than expected or R & D failure; Risk of significant price reduction of covid-19 vaccine in the future.
