Vt Industrial Technology Co.Ltd(300707) (300707)
Key investment points
event:
On December 25, Vietnam vinfast held the offline delivery ceremony of the first vfe34 electric vehicle. The incident made Vietnam one of the few countries in the world to master the production technology of clean energy vehicles. (Vietnam News Agency)
The first pure electric vehicle model E34 of vinfast will be delivered, and the supporting models of the company are expected to be mass produced next year
Founded in 2017, vinfast aims to become the first global automobile manufacturer in Vietnam. It plans to go public in the United States in the second half of 2022. It is reported that the current valuation is US $50 billion. Three new intelligent EVs - vfe34, vfe35 and vfe36 will be launched in 2021. Vfe34 is a class C Electric SUV developed specifically for the Vietnamese market. Its delivery means that Vietnam has officially joined the list of new energy vehicle manufacturers. At the same time, it also means that vfe35 and E36 models are expected to be successfully delivered next year. According to the announcement of the listed company on May 13, the company has obtained the project fixed point of the power battery box assembly of a VF model, and the project life cycle is 5 years.
The profit of traditional main business is expected to reverse; Stamping parts / battery box / lithium battery equipment to build long-term growth power
1. Stamping parts: the compound growth rate of revenue in the next three years is nearly 100%, and the long-term space is broad. 1) The sales volume of important stamping parts customers increased rapidly; 2) The customer is expected to supply only Chinese factories to global factories; 3) The supporting value of single vehicle has the potential to double; 4) With the increase of welding proportion of stamping parts, there is room for improvement of profitability; 5) Strengthen the sales team of stamping parts and continuously develop new customers.
2. Power battery box: it is expected to be large in the second half of next year, and the follow-up new fixed point can be expected. 1) The project fixed point of VF battery box assembly of a vehicle model has been obtained; 2) The market space is broad, and the market scale of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery box is expected to be 30-40 billion yuan in 2025; 3) Actively explore new customers of power battery and vehicle factory.
3. Lithium battery equipment: Ningbo Jiuju (29% shares held by Wuxi Weitang Industrial Investment Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the listed company) is actively developing some new energy equipment.
4. Traditional stamping dies: basically exported to world-famous auto parts manufacturers, with a compound growth rate of more than 10% in the next three years. 1) Molds are related to the number of models, and the number of new energy models has increased significantly in recent years; 2) Issue convertible bonds to realize the full category coverage of molds; 3) The sharp rise in freight and the impact of exchange rate appreciation are great.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.5/1.1/160 billion respectively, with a compound growth rate of 72% in three years; The corresponding PE from 2021 to 2023 is 64 / 31 / 20 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips:
The production expansion progress of stamping parts is less than expected, the competition pattern becomes worse and the risk of technical iteration; The newly signed order of battery box is less than expected; The R & D Progress of new energy equipment is less than expected.
