Report guide
The latest tracking of airport, aviation, duty-free and hotel sectors in the first week of March.
Key investment points
Market review of transportation and social service industry this week
Among the 31 shenwanyi industries, the cumulative growth of transportation and social service industries this week (February 28 - March 4) were + 3.65% and + 2.30% respectively, ranking second and fifth respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by - 1.68%.
Among the 134 Shenwan secondary industries, this week (February 28 - March 4), hotel catering, tourism and scenic spots, airports and tourism retail increased by + 6.2%, + 4.9%, + 3.1% and + 0.0% respectively, ranking No. 3, 6, 14 and 53 respectively.
Follow up of the two sessions: the national vaccination rate exceeded 85%, and the prevention and control measures were relaxed and expected to be strengthened
Relevant descriptions of government work report:
Epidemic related: "the coverage rate of the whole vaccination process exceeds 85%," accelerate the research and development of vaccines and specific drugs, continue to do a good job in vaccination, scientifically and accurately deal with local epidemic situations, and maintain normal production and living order ".
Transportation: optimize and implement the policy of helping enterprises to relieve difficulties, and strengthen the transportation guarantee of railway, highway, aviation, shipping and port; Comprehensively solve the problem of retention tax rebate in transportation and other industries.
Social service: "catering, accommodation, retail, tourism, passenger transport and other industries have large employment capacity and are seriously affected by the epidemic. All assistance policies should be tilted to support enterprises in these industries to survive, overcome difficulties and make progress".
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from February 26 to March 4, China reported a total of 562 local confirmed cases (581 last week), mainly in Guangdong Province (Shenzhen and Dongguan), Inner Mongolia (Hohhot), Guangxi (Fangchenggang), Tianjin, Hubei (Wuhan), Jilin (Yanbian and Jilin). 2) Global: from February 26 to March 4, there were about 10.11 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia overseas, a month on month increase of - 10%; The number of deaths increased by 50828, a month on month increase of - 20%. As of March 4, 2022, there were about 400 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia and about 6 million deaths worldwide. 3) United States: from February 26 to March 4, about 36 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the United States, down 28% month on month; There were 11286 new deaths, down 19% month on month. As of March 4, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the United States is about 80.9 million, and the cumulative death is about 980000. 4) UK: from February 26 to March 4, about 320000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the UK, up 22% month on month; There were 786 new deaths, down 7% month on month. As of March 4, 2022, about 19.26 million cases of covid-19 pneumonia in the UK have been diagnosed and 160000 cases have died.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: according to the official website of the National Health Commission, as of March 4, the country has reported about 3.15 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; At the same time, the third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen needle vaccination. About 5.4 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from February 26 to March 4, down 2.8% month on month. (2) Global: according to our world in data, as of March 4, covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated for about 10.8 billion doses worldwide, and about 63% of the world's population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: local epidemics in many places suppress travel
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from February 26 to March 4, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 9471, a year-on-year decrease of 21% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of + 65% and - 35% respectively in 2020 and 2019, and a month-on-week decrease of 14%.
2) aviation department: from February 28 to March 4, according to the data of flying standard, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 649, 1440, 1389, 173, 410 and 307 respectively, with the average of - 13%, - 18%, - 12%, + 7%, - 15% and - 9% respectively.
Tax exemption: the number of tourists in Hainan decreased this week, and the discount on outlying islands in Japan and China increased month on month
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from February 26 to March 4, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 336 and 409 respectively, with a month on week decrease of 19% and 12% respectively; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou airport was (expected) 52672, a decrease of 2.9% month on month.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail (70-80% off), China free outlying islands (about 85% off) was strengthened month on month, and the discount intensity of sea travel investment (70% off), Haifa control (80% off) and China export service Outlying Islands (70% off) was basically the same month on month.
3) the implementation plan for building a "double hub" international consumption bridgehead (20212025) released by Beijing on March 1 mentioned that port duty-free stores should be added, the scale of airport duty-free stores should be expanded, and international consumption should be attracted back; Support the airport duty-free shops to sell high-quality domestic products and help domestic brands expand the international market.
4) due to the need of epidemic prevention and control, phase II of Sanya international duty free city was suspended from 14:00 on March 3.
5) in 2021, the passenger flow of Haikou Riyue Plaza exceeded 22.58 million, and the overall tax-free and taxable operating income of the mall reached 10.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%.
This week's hotel information review
1) Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) released the performance express of 2021. During the reporting period, the operating revenue was 6.153 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 556769 million yuan, with a loss of 496 million yuan in the same period of last year. In 2021, with the improvement of epidemic prevention and control situation, the overall recovery trend of the hotel industry is obvious, but there are still local outbreaks and sporadic outbreaks in many places, which have an impact on the normal operation of the hotel industry.
2) Intercontinental Hotel released the annual report of 2021, which said that it made a profit of 266 million US dollars in 2021 and a loss of 260 million US dollars in the same period of last year, turning losses into profits; The total operating revenue was US $2.907 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%.
Investment advice
1) recommend Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China's transportation capacity accounts for a large proportion, its performance is the first to recover, its profit performance is more stable before the opening of the door, its long-term growth is high, and intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : obvious scale advantage, obvious improvement in management, accelerated overseas recovery, and is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
6) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of outlying island duty-free stores in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
