Domestic household sector:
Adhere to the premise of “no speculation in housing and housing”, implement policies according to the city to meet the reasonable housing needs of property buyers. On March 5, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in the government work report that we should continue to ensure the housing needs of the masses, adhere to the positioning of “housing without speculation”, and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. In March 2nd, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that the momentum of China’s real estate bubble financial transformation was fundamentally reversed. It is expected that the policies to curb demand will gradually ease and optimize. The real estate is expected to be repaired upward and is optimistic about the valuation and repair of the home sector.
The number of orders received by household leaders increased rapidly, superimposed with 315 promotion, which is expected to maintain strong growth. According to the recent grassroots research feedback of the industrial chain, the orders received by household enterprises generally maintained a good trend from January to February. On the premise of the high base of 21q1, the leading enterprises still maintained high growth, superimposed with the upcoming 315 promotion, the household leading enterprises gave full play to the advantages of the supply chain, combined with the head brands of household appliances, launched the whole package including multiple categories, and the customer unit price is expected to continue to increase, Continue to be optimistic about the “domestic demand + 2C” based household leaders, and it is recommended to add leaders. It is recommended that retail and large household channels account for a high proportion, and the 315 activity is strong [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ].
Aluminum plastic film sector:
On the whole, the aluminum-plastic film industry is in short supply. At present, the core driving force of the demand for aluminum-plastic film is the rapid growth of soft pack battery shipments, and the future increment may come from two wheeled electric vehicles, energy storage batteries, solid-state batteries and other fields. According to the data of evtank and Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) prospectus, the proportion of global soft pack battery shipments increased from 23.93% in 2012 to 55.83% in 2020, and the shipments in 2020 were 107.7gwh, yoy + 28.1%; From the perspective of competition pattern, the global aluminum-plastic film is mainly monopolized by Japanese enterprises, of which greater Japan printing (DNP) occupies 50% of the global market share and Showa electric occupies 20% of the market share. At present, China’s aluminum plastic film technology has made progress, product performance and reliability have been improved, and the supply system has been gradually improved, forming a virtuous cycle feedback from upstream and downstream, which is on the eve of domestic substitution. [ Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) ], the core logic is domestic substitution, which is essentially due to technological progress and the gradual improvement of upstream and downstream supply system. The unit price of aluminum-plastic film of 21q3 company is 16.8 yuan / m2, the average price of 21h1 is 16.0 yuan / m2, and the average price of 20 years is 15.5 yuan / m2. The unit price continues to increase month on month, and the industry competition pattern is good.
Forestry carbon sequestration:
China is expected to become the world’s largest carbon trading market, and forestry carbon sequestration is the “gold” in CCER project. The global carbon market covers 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, 54% of global GDP and nearly one third of the population. It is estimated that the total quota of the global carbon market will exceed 7.5 billion tons in 2021; In 2019, China’s carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 28.8% of the world, which is expected to become the world’s largest carbon trading market! As a “negative carbon” approach in the process of “carbon neutralization”, forestry carbon sequestration has the characteristics of large carbon sequestration, low cost and high ecological added value. It is the “gold” in CCER project.
The “14th five year plan” and medium and long-term high-quality development outline of the paper industry “was issued, which proposed to accumulate carbon sequestration and biomass resources. On December 10, 2021, the central economic work conference stressed that “it is necessary to conduct scientific assessment, exclude the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from” double control “of energy consumption to” double control “of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon, and prevent simple layer by layer decomposition”; On December 17, 2021, Beijing Green Exchange resumed collecting all fees related to CCER trading; On December 24, 2021, the “14th five year plan” and medium and long-term high-quality development outline of the paper industry put forward five development goals, including the accumulation of carbon sink and biomass resources. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) ].
New tobacco sector:
Recently, e-cigarette policies have been intensively introduced, and policy norms have promoted the orderly development of the industry. On November 30, 2021, the state tobacco administration issued a notice on Soliciting Opinions on the national standard for electronic cigarette (Exposure Draft), which is to be officially implemented 3-5 months after its issuance. On December 2, 2021, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration publicly solicited opinions on the administrative measures for electronic cigarettes (Draft for comments). We believe that: (1) from the perspective of supervision, the overall supervision of e-cigarettes is basically consistent with that of cigarettes. All links need permission and approval, and adopt unified centralized purchase platform sales; (2) The existing competition pattern of e-cigarettes will be broken, and e-cigarettes will enter the monopoly era. On the product side, the coincidence rules and quality are beneficial to manufacturers with high production standards, high-tech reserves and high capital reserves; The national, provincial and municipal representatives of e-cigarettes on the channel side will face a reshuffle, and wholesale enterprises need to apply for wholesale licenses. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ], [smore international], [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ].
Paper sector:
The cost side drive superimposed the replenishment of inventory after the holiday, and the price of paper enterprises rose moderately in March. Recently, affected by the closure of UPM factory and the shortage of logistics in Canada, the supply of raw materials of pulp and paper industry continued to be tight, and the prices of coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp continued to rise. Downstream Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) , app, Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Huatai Paper, Jianghe paper, Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) and many other paper mills issued price increase letters in March, raising the price by about 300 yuan / ton. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ], [ Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) ], [ Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) ], [ Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) ].
Risk warning: real estate sales and completion are not as expected; Upward risk of raw material price; Industry competition intensifies; The risk of Sino US trade friction.
